Los Angeles Rams wide receiver Van Jefferson had an encouraging sophomore season in 2021. Can he emerge as a fantasy football star in 2022? What is Jefferson’s fantasy outlook for 2022, and what’s his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Van Jefferson’s fantasy outlook for 2022
There was a brief moment this offseason where a pathway appeared for Jefferson to claim the No. 2 receiver role in Los Angeles. From the time Odell Beckham tore his ACL in the Super Bowl until the Rams signed veteran free agent Allen Robinson to a rich contract, Jefferson was in line for a massive fantasy boost. Unfortunately, that was only a two-month stretch before dreams were dashed.
Jefferson turned in a solid second season last year. He totaled 50 receptions for 802 yards and six scores. His 16 yards per reception was among the highest in the NFL.
He became a good buy-low option in Best Ball leagues as his production came in flurries. He had four games with 80 or more yards, and only one of those performances did not have a touchdown. With 89 targets, Jefferson wasn’t a high-efficiency option for the offense, which could have eroded some of their trust in him taking a larger step in 2022.
One area where Jefferson lost opportunities was the red zone. He was targeted 15 times but caught only four passes for 42 yards and three touchdowns. Fantasy managers could have fared significantly better last season had Jefferson been more efficient in the most critical part of the field.
How the Rams’ depth chart impacts Van Jefferson’s fantasy projection for the season
Despite the encouraging results from Jefferson and the growing role in 2021, the Rams clearly wanted to replace Beckham with another star who was more versatile. Robinson is a perfect fit with Matthew Stafford and will demand a significant number of targets because he’s so good.
Over the last four seasons, Robinson has been twice as efficient as Jefferson has been in the red zone. When also factoring in Cooper Kupp’s domineering presence on this team, it’s easy to see Jefferson being relegated to a part-time role player who creates chunk plays.
The Rams run a specific offense that pumps targets to three players: their top two wide receivers and lead running back. Of their 1,022 pass and run attempts in 2021, 72% were funneled to Kupp, Beckham/Robert Woods, and their RB1. That strategy is unlikely to change considerably after the team won the Super Bowl.
With Sean McVay running 11 personnel a whopping 86% of the time, the highest rate in the NFL, the Rams will prioritize their best players. Unfortunately for Jefferson, he is on the outside looking in on that shortlist.
Jefferson’s ADP for 2022
It’s hard to find many drafts where Jefferson is being drafted. With an ADP of 192 and WR76, fantasy managers are finding a scarcity of opportunities for Jefferson to make a big impact. The addition of Robinson to this receiving corps was a devastating blow to his upside.
That being said, Jefferson should become a priority waiver wire pickup in the event of an injury. That does give him some late-round value if you have the roster spot to spare. While that’s a bold bet, it’s one that might be worthwhile if you don’t need to stash an extra back and instead want Jefferson for a few weeks.
I’d also consider stashing Nico Collins and even Odell Beckham Jr. from receivers in this fringe-draftable range. Managers have some intriguing options at the end of drafts. Jefferson is certainly one of the tops of that list.