The Miami Dolphins should simultaneously feel more optimistic about the direction of their team and more pessimistic about their playoff chances after Week 11.
The Dolphins’ 34-19 Week 11 victory over the Las Vegas Raiders was just about the only thing that went their way in the AFC this week. The Buffalo Bills will be runaway divisional champions, and every team in the race for the No. 7 seed other than the Cincinnati Bengals won.
Updated Miami Dolphins Playoff Chances
The Dolphins (4-6) will enter Week 12 as the AFC’s ninth seed after wins Sunday by the Los Angeles Chargers (7-3, fifth seed), Denver Broncos (6-5, seventh seed), and Indianapolis Colts (5-6, eighth seed).
The AFC East and AFC South would be one-bid divisions if the postseason began today. That’s because the stronger-than-expected AFC West has three teams over .500: the Kansas City Chiefs (9-1, first seed), Chargers, and Broncos.
Working in the Dolphins’ favor? They have the fourth-easiest remaining strength of schedule (.397). But even that’s not all good news.
Of the three teams with the most realistic paths to the No. 7 seed — the Broncos, Colts, and Dolphins — Miami is the only one to still have three games against teams that would currently be in the postseason field (Packers, Texans, and 49ers).
The Chargers beating the Bengals crushed Cincinnati’s chances to get in (just 10.6%, per PFN’s Playoff Predictor) and put L.A. firmly in the driver’s seat to secure at least a Wild Card berth.
JK DOBBINS FOR THE SCORE
📺 | @SNFonNBC pic.twitter.com/M0RHEWbdUg
— Los Angeles Chargers (@chargers) November 18, 2024
The Chargers’ chances to qualify for the postseason in Jim Harbaugh’s first year as coach are up to 84.1%, which means that, unless the Baltimore Ravens (7-4, sixth seed) completely collapse, five of the seven AFC teams are already known: KC, BUF, PIT, LAC, and BAL.
The AFC South is still up for grabs. The Colts are now just a game and a half behind the Houston Texans (6-4, fourth seed), who play the Dallas Cowboys Monday night. If the AFC South somehow gets two teams into the field, the Dolphins would need either a Chargers or Ravens collapse.
PFN Playoff Predictor Odds
Put it all together, and the Dolphins have just a 22.2% chance of reaching the playoffs, per the Playoff Predictor, and their only realistic path is as the seventh seed. They have a 1.4% chance of winning the division and just a 7.6% chance to get in as the No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
By way of comparison, Miami’s chances to make the postseason after Week 10 were 23.9%. That means Miami’s playoff probability actually went down in a week in which Mike McDaniel’s team won.
Of course, that’s an unfortunate fact of life in a season in which you lose six out of seven games, which the Dolphins did between Weeks 2 and 9.
“We’ve still got a long way to go,” defensive lineman Calais Campbell said postgame Sunday. “It doesn’t get to be rewarding until we get to where we want to go. So it’s a good opportunity. We gave ourselves an opportunity, but we still are in the hole.
“We’ve still got a long way to go. And the guys know it, but the good thing is there’s life. We’ve got a lot of life, a lot of fight left. This next one [against the New England Patriots] is going to be a big one. Division game at home against a team that’s playing hungry.
“I know Drake Maye had a pretty good game today. They lost, but he played well. We’re going to have our hands full. We have to go earn it again, but this next one is going to be huge.”
Tua Tagovailoa’s Task
The Dolphins need at least nine — and probably 10 — wins to return to the playoffs for the third straight year. But with the way quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has played, that’s not inconceivable.
Tagovailoa on Sunday completed 28 of 36 passes for 288 yards, three touchdowns, and zero interceptions.
On the season, Tua has completed 73.4% of his passes for 1,443 yards (7.5 per attempt), nine touchdowns, and four interceptions for a 101.6 rating.
But since his return from injured reserve, Tua has completed an absurd 77.7% of his attempts, averaged 7.4 yards per pass, has a 7-1 TD-INT ratio, and a 112.2 passer rating.
Tua Tagovailoa on the transformation of the Dolphins’ offense in 2024 pic.twitter.com/kXNdMI0Ik4
— Adam Beasley (@AdamHBeasley) November 17, 2024
On third and fourth downs since his return, Tagovailoa has connected on 78% of his attempts, averaged 8.5 yards per attempt, thrown two touchdowns and no picks (118.5 rating), and has 25 passing first downs on 45 dropbacks.
He took it to another level on money downs Sunday, completing 10 of 12 attempts on third and fourth downs (83.3%), averaged 6.8 yards per attempt, threw two touchdowns (134.7), and converted nine first downs on 13 dropbacks.
Tagovailoa has a 94.9 QB+ rating on the season, which ranks second behind only Lamar Jackson and is the ninth-best of any quarterback since 2019.
So here’s his challenge, and it’s a manageable one: Outplay Broncos quarterback Bo Nix (68.3 QB+ rating, 26th in the NFL) and Colts quarterback Anthony Richardson (63.8 rating, 32nd) the rest of the season.
If Tua does that, everything else probably will take care of itself.
“He’s taken a gigantic step in his game,” McDaniel said Sunday. “He’s got control of the emotional piece of the football game and isn’t trying to force things unnecessarily, isn’t trying to make plays when they’re not there, but also finding ways to extend plays and making more plays than maybe the play that I gave him enabled them to do.”