Are you ready for some Thanksgiving Day NFL action? We have three great games to enjoy while we’re stuffing our faces with food. Our goal is to help you stuff your pockets by playing Underdog Fantasy Pick’ems that score you some big returns.
We’ve scoured the stats, game trends, and best pick’em fantasy football contests offered at Underdog in order to bring you our top plays for the New England Patriots vs. Minnesota Vikings. Let’s dive into our predictions for the game and our best pick’em entry options.
Top Underdog Pick’ems for Patriots vs. Vikings on Thanksgiving Day
Kirk Cousins Lower 250.5 Total Yards
I’m not expecting this to be an explosive offensive game. The Patriots have one of the best defenses in the NFL, ranking second in points and fourth in yards allowed. They’re coming off back-to-back dominant performances where they allowed 121 and 103 total yards, respectively.
The Vikings have more firepower than the Colts and Jets, of course, but the Patriots have only allowed more than 250.5 total yards to a quarterback in two games all season. With the weather being nice but cold in Minnesota on Thanksgiving evening, I think the Vikings look to play conservatively and limit turnovers.
Kirk Cousins has been very mediocre this year. Normally a quarterback who is statistically better than his overall impact, Cousins’ numbers are down across the board in his first season with Kevin O’Connell.
His completion and touchdown rate, plus his average yards per attempt, are the lowest of his career since becoming a full-time starter. Additionally, Cousins’ interception rate is his second-highest mark since 2017.
Though he’s only hit the lower in four of 10 contests this year, I expect Bill Belichick’s defense to limit the effectiveness of this passing game. Cousins either struggles or produces big numbers, and I don’t see this being one of his impressive outbursts.
T.J. Hockenson Higher 45.5 Receiving Yards
Since joining the Vikings, T.J. Hockenson has been a solid and consistent part of the offense. He’s averaged over nine targets across his three games, with his Week 9 performance being his best in terms of receptions and yards. But Hockenson has to come up big for Minnesota in Week 12 against the Patriots.
New England has the best defense in the league against running backs and are third-best at limiting wide receivers. Their weakness is against tight ends. The Patriots are 23rd in fantasy points per game against the position, giving up an average of 4.3 receptions for 44 yards and 0.7 touchdowns.
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Acquiring Hockenson was a smart decision for Minnesota. While defenses were able to key onto Justin Jefferson by throwing multiple bodies on him because they’re unafraid of an aging Adam Thielen, Hockenson’s presence can be a deterrent to overloading against Jefferson. Still, the Patriots should opt to discourage throwing to Jefferson and let Hockenson have more single coverage.
This is a high line, considering Hockenson has hit the lower in two straight weeks. However, I think Cousins will rely on the big man to make some clutch plays downfield.
Dalvin Cook Lower 90.5 Total Yards
There aren’t many backs more explosive than Dalvin Cook. He has two 100-yard rushing games in the last month and has hit over 90.5 total yards in five games this season. When the Vikings want to feed Cook, he usually goes off.
However, I think we have some terrific value on this pick’em option. Cook is extremely hit-or-miss as a receiving threat. He’s had 10 or fewer receiving yards in five games this season. If he doesn’t add in several receptions this week, he won’t go higher than his total line of 90.5 yards.
Considering the Patriots have the 10th-best run defense EPA and limit backs’ fantasy production better than any defense in the league, I think Cook ends up closer to the range of 70 yards as a rusher and fails to be an effective pass catcher. Barring a big play on the ground or a screen, Cook won’t have a big day for the Vikings.
Mac Jones Lower 234.5 Total Yards
Even against a defense that is decidedly mediocre in every metric I could find, it’s hard to have faith that Mac Jones will be a productive passer. He’s coming off his best performance of the season, completing 23 of 27 attempts for 246 yards.
However, Jones’ high completion rate failed to make an actual impact since the Patriots had only three offensive points against the Jets.
Jones has thrown for 213 yards or less in three games despite completing 20+ passes. He’s as milquetoast as quarterbacks come despite benefiting from a good rushing game and a Utilitarian receiving corps that is made less interesting due to Jones’ limitations. Expect plenty of checkdowns in order to avoid Za’Darius Smith’s and Danielle Hunter’s pass-rush attempts.
That might mean a higher completion rate, but I expect the Patriots to compensate by relying on the ground game. Rhamondre Stevenson and Damien Harris should benefit from a bounce-back game against a weaker run defense than what the Jets have.
Rhamondre Stevenson Higher 27.5 Receiving Yards
Only nine defenses have allowed more production to RBs on a per-game basis than the Vikings. Minnesota allows only 82 rushing yards per game but have given up 40 receiving yards on five receptions and 1.1 total touchdowns to the position. That doesn’t bode well against a solid duo in Stevenson and Harris.
Stevenson’s rushing totals have been especially volatile over the last month, though, so I’m avoiding that pick’em option. Instead, I want all of the higher action for his receiving yards.
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He’s totaled at least 56 receiving yards in three of his last four games and has been more productive out of the backfield than as a rusher in that same span.
Minnesota should concede these targets with little concern about Stevenson’s receptions causing significant damage. It’s closer to the red zone, where this offense stalls and has no solution for a quarterback with little playmaking ability. We’ll capitalize on Underdog’s low line here.