Tyreek Hill was a first-round lock in virtually every preseason fantasy draft after leading the NFL with 1,799 receiving yards in 2023. But like the rest of the Miami Dolphins offense, Hill’s production has disintegrated since Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion.
With Miami set to start Tyler Huntley for the second straight game, can fantasy football managers trust Hill?
Should You Start Tyreek Hill in Week 5?
Pro Football Network’s Week 5 rankings have Hill as the WR25 this week, making him a low-end WR2 or Flex option. Normally that ranking is enough to justify starting a player, but Hill is a true boom-or-bust option. While the Cheetah is capable of producing a whole game’s work on a single play, he is just as likely to post a goose egg given the state of Miami’s offense.
First, the numbers: Hill has produced a total of seven receptions for 63 yards in two games without Tagovailoa, which was an average half for him last season. The alarming truth is that even with Tua, Hill has not been able to shake loose downfield. On targets 20+ yards downfield this year, Hill has caught two of nine targets (both from Tua) for 101 yards. However, almost all of that was from his 80-yard TD in Week 1 vs the Jacksonville Jaguars, his lone highlight of the season to date.
So the Dolphins have not been able to get the deep ball to Hill clicking all season, regardless of quarterback. That’s an ominous sign, considering that the total volume of opportunities is also way down without Tagovailoa. When the game has been within one score, the Dolphins have passed at the third-lowest rate the last two weeks without Tua (40.5%).
Only the run-heavy Baltimore Ravens and Detroit Lions have run more in neutral situations, but those are elite rushing offenses leaning into strengths. The Tua-less Dolphins have simply tried to delay exposing their passing offense for as long as possible. The problem is, they’re only averaging 3.0 yards per rush in those situations, putting the offense in untenable down-and-distance situations.
As this chart illustrates, the Tua-less Dolphins occupy their own dubious neighborhood as a run-heavy offense who also can’t effectively run the ball.
The other factor to consider is that Odell Beckham Jr. is expected to be activated off the PUP list and make his team debut. While Beckham Jr. is unlikely to see a massive share of snaps, he could still cut into Hill’s snaps a bit given the lack of three-receiver sets. Miami has played three or more wide receivers at the third-lowest rate so far this season (35.6%).
The #Dolphins are activating WR Odell Beckham Jr from the PUP list and he’ll play on Sunday against the #Patriots, per me and @TomPelissero.
Beckham practiced fully all week, his first week back. Coach Mike McDaniel said: “On a team that is very motivated to win a football… pic.twitter.com/F6uS3PZso8
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) October 5, 2024
Deeper-league owners are likely stuck with Hill. However, if you had the luxury of snagging a popular waiver-wire receiver like Dontayvion Wicks this week, that could be a higher-floor option that offers a reasonably similar ceiling. Until Tagovailoa’s return to the lineup, though, Hill and the rest of the Dolphins’ offense will all represent extremely volatile options with no floor.