Miami Dolphins WR Tyreek Hill ultimately fell short of his 2,000-yard goal last season, but he proved to be unguardable (11 double-digit target games) and hasn’t seen his fantasy football stock dip a bit since leaving Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs.
Can Hill make a run at the yardage record in 2024? Should he be the first receiver plucked off of draft boards this summer?
Tyreek Hill’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- PPR Fantasy Points: 389 (256 non-PPR)
- Receptions: 133
- Receiving Yards: 1,813
- Receiving TDs: 11.1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Hill This Year?
Peyton Manning, 2000.
That was the last time a QB led the NFL in passing yards at a younger age than Tua Tagovailoa and returned to the same team the following season. Marvin Harrison was Manning’s go-to receiver that year, and that was the second season of a four-year peak that saw the Hall of Famer clear 100 catches, 1,400 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns in every season.
Tyreek Hill really is unguardable 😲pic.twitter.com/mvzpTbXFaS
— Football’s Greatest Moments (@FBGreatMoments) June 26, 2024
Could we be in the midst of that sort of run from Hill? He and Harrison go about their business in very different ways, but the ability to develop a connection early in the career of a pocket passer can return serious fruit for a special receiver — and Hill certainly qualifies as such.
No, I’m not calling Tagovailoa a left-handed Manning, but I’m also not ready to say the rules of the early 2000s are anything like what defenses have to deal with these days, something that points me in Hill’s direction.
Jaylen Waddle enters this season ahead of where rookie Reggie Wayne was in 2001 to keep with this thread, so maybe expecting growth upon Hill’s cartoon numbers from 2023 doesn’t happen. Still, a repeat performance would return a profit on taking him with a top-three overall pick in PPR formats.
For those in the back, I hear you. “What about the weather stuff with Tagovailoa?”
It’s a reasonable concern. Hill had three straight games in December without a 100-yard game or a touchdown, a decline in production that can sink a fantasy team in position to challenge for a title because of his 20+ point performances.
On the bright side, from Weeks 10-16, the Dolphins have one game that can be impacted by freezing temperatures. They travel to Lambeau on Thanksgiving (for the record, Green Bay hasn’t had a Thanksgiving night under 30 degrees in five straight years). Outside of that, there are four home and two weatherproof games.
There are two hurdles in terms of matchup to end the fantasy season (Weeks 16-17 vs. SF and at CLE), which takes Hill out of the 1.01 discussion for me. There’s the potential for him to struggle late, and that hurts, though it’s not as if his talent can’t rise above those situations.
The New England Patriots and New York Jets posted two of the better pass defenses a year ago, right? Hill played three games against them, scored in each contest, and averaged 7.3 receptions.
At the end of the day, Hill is a Tier 1 receiver without much discussion and deserves to be drafted in the first half of Round 1 in all formats. Last season, one that he underachieved based on his self-made goals, he became the first player in the history of this great game to post five games of 150+ receiving yards and a TD reception in a single season.
I think CeeDee Lamb’s floor in any given week is higher, but if you want to make the case for taking Hill over any other player (including Christian McCaffrey), I’m not batting an eye.
The Dolphins are electric because of Hill; Hill isn’t electric because of the Dolphins.