Imagine thinking two years ago that Tyreek Hill would be better on the Miami Dolphins than he was on the Kansas City Chiefs. Well, that’s the reality we live in.
Fresh off the best season of his career, is there any reason Hill shouldn’t be an early pick in 2024 fantasy football drafts?
Should You Select Tyreek Hill at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 6th Overall (WR2)
- 2023 Performance: Hill had the best season of his career last year, averaging 23.5 fantasy points per game and finishing as the overall WR2. He was on pace for a WR1 finish before a late-season ankle injury limited his production.
- Consistency and Longevity: Hill has finished inside the top 12 fantasy receivers every year since 2017 and has averaged over 20 fantasy points per game in four of those seasons, including the last two. His ability to combine speed with volume makes him a unique and highly valuable fantasy asset.
- Volume and Efficiency: Hill led the NFL with a 33.7% target share and a 36.9% targets per route run rate last season. He also led all receivers with 3.88 yards per route run, showcasing his ability to be highly efficient on significant volume.
- Durability: Despite his age and a late-season injury, Hill has been remarkably durable throughout his career, missing only five games in seven years. There’s no indication that he’s slowing down as he approaches 30.
- ADP Analysis: While Hill is nearing the later years of his career, there’s no reason to believe he’s anything other than elite. Debates between Hill and CeeDee Lamb for the top WR spot in 2024 drafts are common, and Hill should be selected no later than the fifth pick in fantasy drafts.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Tyreek Hill
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
1) CeeDee Lamb, WR | Dallas Cowboys
2) Christian McCaffrey, RB | San Francisco 49ers
3) Tyreek Hill, WR | Miami Dolphins
4) Bijan Robinson, RB | Atlanta Falcons
5) Breece Hall, RB | New York Jets
6) Ja’Marr Chase, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
7) Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR | Detroit Lions
8) Justin Jefferson, WR | Minnesota Vikings
9) A.J. Brown, WR | Philadelphia Eagles
10) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Detroit Lions
Hill’s Fantasy Profile For the 2024 NFL Season
If not for a late-season ankle sprain, Hill probably would have become the first wide receiver to achieve 2,000 yards in a single season. For the past seven years, he’s been not only one of the safest picks in fantasy but one of the highest-upside picks.
Hill has now finished inside the top 12 for fantasy receivers every year since 2017. He’s averaged over 20 fantasy points per game a total of four times in his career, including each of the last two seasons. As alluded to above, the best season of his career did not come with Chiefs QB Patrick Mahomes — it was last season with Tua Tagovailoa.
Hill averaged 23.5 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall WR2 behind Dallas Cowboys WR CeeDee Lamb. He was well on his way to an overall WR1 finish before his ankle injury limited his late-season production.
The injury wound up only costing Hill one game, but it limited his playing time and effectiveness in two others. While injuries are always a concern, especially for older players, Hill has never had an issue with them, missing just five games in his career.
Tyreek Hill torches the #Chiefs in his return to Arrowhead 🔥
Cheetah is HIM 🐆#FinsUp | #ChiefsKingdom
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) January 14, 2024
What’s always made Hill my favorite WR target is his unique combination of speed and volume. There has never been a player like him.
Some wide receivers rely on volume, and we know they won’t be able to sustain their production without it (this is not necessarily a negative). Others aren’t going to see volume, but have the skill to be efficient on limited touches.
What’s always made Hill so appealing is he never needed the volume to produce … but what if he got it anyway?
That’s exactly what’s happened, which is why he’s such a high-floor/high-ceiling player.
Hill led the NFL with a 33.7% target share last season. He also led the league with his 36.9% targets per route run rate. Unsurprisingly, Hill also led all receivers with 3.88 yards per route run.
It’s extremely difficult to be that efficient on significant volume. Hill is in a category of one when it comes to wide receivers in NFL history.
Is Hill a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
There’s no denying the fact that we are barreling toward the end of Hill’s career. He certainly has more WR1 seasons behind him than ahead of him.
It never feels right to take a 30-year-old WR with such premium draft capital in lieu of elite young players firmly in their prime. With that said, we’ve seen nothing to indicate Hill is slowing down.
In the past, my outlook on older players was to always be out a year early rather than a year late. I no longer hold that philosophy.
Particularly when it comes to elite talents, we’ve seen so many of them continue to perform at a high level in their first couple of years of their 30s. Typically, we see signs of decline before the collapse happens.
We’ve seen nothing with Hill. Therefore, there’s no reason to think He will be anything other than the same elite player he’s been for the better part of the past decade.
I’ve debated all year between Hill and Lamb as my top-ranked wide receiver for the 2024 season. Ultimately, there’s no wrong answer. Hill should be gone no later than the fifth pick in fantasy drafts.