It still feels weird to type out “Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill.” The Chiefs traded their elite offensive weapon to the Dolphins after a contract dispute this offseason. In a new offense with a new quarterback, what can fantasy football managers expect from Hill in the 2022 season, and what is his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Tyreek Hill’s fantasy outlook for 2022
For the past half-decade, there’s been little uncertainty surrounding Hill. He’s been a WR1 since 2017 and came with the single highest weekly ceiling in all of fantasy football (outside of quarterbacks). By all accounts, Hill had a down season in 2021. Yet, he still posted 17.4 PPR fantasy points per game, finishing as the WR7 (minimum eight games played).
What makes Hill so dynamic is his ability to be both the league’s best downfield threat and underneath option. In 2018, Hill generated 2.98 yards per route run (fifth-most in the league), had an average depth of target (aDOT) of 15.3, and averaged 20.5 ppg. In 2021, Hill recorded 2.31 yards per route run (11th-most) and saw a 10.7 aDOT. However, in both seasons, he was a WR1.
Entering the 2022 season, the biggest question is whether Hill can maintain his elite production without Patrick Mahomes and the explosive Chiefs offense.
How the Dolphins’ depth chart impacts Tyreek Hill’s fantasy projection for the season
Every fantasy analyst is correctly viewing the move to Miami as a negative for Hill. Of course, it is. Yet, I’m not sure if it’s as significant of a downgrade as some think.
Tua Tagovailoa is not exactly known for being a downfield passer. He doesn’t have the best arm, so he attempted just 2.2 deep balls per game last season. When you compare that with Mahomes’ 4.6 deep attempts per game, that’s cause for significant concern on the surface.
Allow me to draw you a parallel. In 2015, Alex Smith attempted 2.3 deep balls per game. In 2016, that number went up to 3.1 per game. What happened in 2016? The Chiefs drafted Hill and slowly integrated him into the offense, taking on a more prominent role toward the second half of the season. Then, in 2017, when Hill became the team’s clear WR1, Smith’s deep attempts shot up to 4.5 per game — exactly where Mahomes was last season.
I fully expect Tagovailoa, who actually led the NFL in deep completion percentage (50%), to take more shots downfield because of Hill. At the same time, while defenses will undoubtedly prepare for this, they are not going to focus their game planning on stopping Tua’s downfield passes. I think Hill will score more long touchdowns this season than he did last year when he only scored two more than 12 yards.
Miami’s stable of receivers may limit touches
The Dolphins do present more target competition for Hill. Jaylen Waddle is vastly superior to any wide receiver Hill played with in Kansas City. Yes, there was Travis Kelce, but the Chiefs never had more than two competent pass catchers. The Dolphins have Hill, Waddle, Cedrick Wilson, Mike Gesicki, and a solid pass-catching running back in Chase Edmonds.
While the target competition has increased, Hill is the alpha here. He’s the guy new head coach Mike McDaniel is going to feature. And if McDaniel’s usage of Deebo Samuel last season is any indication, Hill will be all over the formation and taking more carries than he did with the Chiefs.
I fully expect Hill to maintain a 25% target share and for the Dolphins to be a pass-first offense. Despite the perception of Tua, the Dolphins threw the ball 615 times last season. Their pass-to-run ratio was 58%:42%. While I don’t see Hill cracking the top five, I’d be surprised if he didn’t average at least 16.5 ppg in 2022.
Hill’s ADP for 2022
The downgrade from Mahomes to Tua has pushed Hill’s ADP to its lowest point since 2018. Hill is being drafted as the WR8. He’s going in the mid-to-late second round. A decrease in productivity is baked into Hill’s ADP.
Whether you select Hill at his ADP is entirely dependent on your evaluation of how he will perform in Miami. I’m more on the side of Hill still being a WR1. With him no longer being a consensus top-five receiver, I view Hill’s ADP as being close to his floor. I’m in on him at his current price. In PFN’s consensus 2022 PPR fantasy rankings, Hill sits as the WR6 at 18th overall.
However, I would be remiss not to acknowledge the possibility that this is more of a flat target distribution scenario between Hill and Waddle. If they are, in fact, closer than I’m projecting, Hill will likely disappoint at his mid-second round ADP.