Tyreek Hill may have seen more team success as a member of the Kansas City Chiefs, but he has reached new heights as a fantasy football producer as a member of the Miami Dolphins.
After two seasons of fantasy excellence in South Florida, can fantasy managers expect another WR2 overall finish in 2024?
Tyreek Hill’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
When your fantasy floor has been the WR2 overall in your first two seasons with a new team, then you know we are seeing something truly special.
Hill has caught 119 passes for 1,700+ yards and scored a minimum of seven receiving TDs in both seasons with the Dolphins. Those are the numbers of an elite producer at the position with an elite fantasy floor that you can take to the bank.
We all know that Hill’s elite speed is revolutionary to the game of football. Yet, you have to wonder what kind of impact losing even half a step would have on Hill’s production.
Look, he has shown absolutely no signs of slowing down whatsoever, but he did turn 30 years old earlier this year. The advanced on-field GPS analytics suggest Hill hasn’t lost a step at all compared to his days with the Kansas City Chiefs. Hill topped out at 22.01 MPH on a long catch and run against the New York Giants last season, showing Hill still has a mind-blowing top speed when he gets the ball in his hands.
However, Father Time remains undefeated. Once a speed receiver loses his speed … the fall from grace can come very quickly. To be clear, I’m not projecting Hill to lose a step this year. He is my overall WR2. I’m simply suggesting that this is worth keeping an eye on entering his ninth year in the NFL.
Hill ranked fifth in the NFL with 683 yards after the catch, which helped him produce 5.6 yards after catch per reception — his highest mark since 2020 when he was with the Chiefs.
Another thing that helps Hill’s fantasy numbers is how creatively Mike McDaniel uses Hill, moving him all over the formation before the snap. Hill lined up in the slot on 37% of his snaps in 2023 and was schemed up for 36 manufactured touches in the screen game and carries out of the backfield. Additionally, Hill’s usage in the red zone last season was also very encouraging with 24 targets, 15 receptions, and four scores.
He is the clear top option in a Miami passing attack crafted perfectly around his dynamic and unique skillset.
The draft day conversation surrounding Hill is a very simple one. His current ADP of No. 2 overall (WR1 off the board) is fully justified. Quite frankly, his floor of fantasy production in a Dolphins’ uniform makes a compelling case for the No. 1 overall pick in fantasy drafts for 2024.
The only two players being selected ahead of him at this time are Christian McCaffrey and CeeDee Lamb. I have no issue with that, but I do consider Hill the final player of the elite top-three tier in fantasy football this season.
Hill’s 238 receptions and 3,509 receiving yards over his two years in Miami give him an elite fantasy floor in this offensive scheme that other players simply can’t touch. Additionally, his durability throughout his entire NFL career has also been outstanding, making him a highly reliable top producer at the position.
Ultimately, Hill will likely be gone by the fourth pick in your fantasy league, but if you get him anywhere outside of the top five in your draft, consider it an early Christmas gift.
Jason Katz’s Analysis of Hill’s Fantasy Value
There’s no denying the fact that we are barreling toward the end of Hill’s career. He certainly has more WR1 seasons behind him than ahead of him.
It never feels right to take a 30-year-old WR with such premium draft capital in lieu of elite young players firmly in their prime. With that said, we’ve seen nothing to indicate Hill is slowing down.
In the past, my outlook on older players was to always be out a year early rather than a year late. I no longer hold that philosophy.
Particularly when it comes to elite talents, we’ve seen so many of them continue to perform at a high level in their first couple of years of their 30s. Typically, we see signs of decline before the collapse happens.
We’ve seen nothing with Hill, so there’s no reason to think he will be anything other than the same elite player he’s been for the better part of the past decade.
I’ve debated all year between Hill and Lamb as my top-ranked wide receiver for the 2024 season. Ultimately, there’s no wrong answer. Hill should be gone no later than the fifth pick in fantasy drafts.
