The old adage is, “You can’t win your league at your draft. But you can lose it.” Screwing up that first-round pick is a surefire way to put yourself behind the eightball for the rest of the season. Despite his first-round ADP, Tyreek Hill’s consistency in fantasy football is a serious concern and is apt to be as much of a headache for your team as an asset.
Tyreek Hill’s consistency was not good
In 2019, Hill had a Consistency Score (CS) of 4.23, which ranked 27th among wide receivers and 57th out of all position players. Whereas his ceiling of 27.5 is quite enticing, his floor bottomed out at zero, and that is where the concern starts for the Kansas City Chiefs receiver.
[PFNfunction functype=ConScore useplayer=N playerid=13071]My Consistency Score omits games missed, so in the games we as fantasy GM’s would have started Hill, he finished as a WR1 in 45% of them, which is a very strong percentage. The flip-side of that coin, however, is that he also finished as a WR4 or worse in 45% of his games played.
Without a single game in the WR2 range (finishing between 13-24 for the week in fantasy points), Hill was actually a WR3 or worse in the majority of games played in 2019 and 36.3% of his games he produced single-digit fantasy points on the week. Hill had as much consistency tanking your starting lineup as he did helping it. Yet his ADP hasn’t adjusted for any of this reality.
In 2018, Hill was the top wide receiver in fantasy, and that wasn’t terribly long ago. There also will be random weeks in the 2020 season where he will explode and be a benefit to any roster he is on. However, there are a few reasons why I believe Andy Reid’s offensive multi-tool is a danger on draft day.
The cost of drafting Tyreek Hill in the first round of your fantasy football draft
Paying a premium
The value for any fantasy football player has to do with their draft price. Looking at FleaFlicker’s ADP, Hill is being drafted 11th overall. If he was in any later round, I likely wouldn’t be penning this article, but he is still being priced at a premium.
There aren’t many other receivers being taken in the first round. Only Michael Thomas and Davante Adams are going in that price range. Hill’s 9.45 fantasy points-per-game (PPG) are over three points less than either of those fellow wide receivers. Moreover, his PPG were also lower than all four of the receivers and the two tight ends whose ADP is in round two (Julio Jones, DeAndre Hopkins, Travis Kelce, Chris Godwin, George Kittle, and Kenny Golladay). We have to get all the way down to the 29th pick, Odell Beckham Jr., to find another pass catcher whose PPG (9.29) are on par with Hill’s.
At his current ADP, Hill cannot possibly over-perform. Fantasy football GM’s are currently paying for him at his peak, and there are just too many factors for him to underwhelm.
Comparable substitutes are a bargain
Currently, 13 of the top 24 in ADP are running backs. With a few tight ends and quarterbacks sprinkled in there, that means only seven wide receivers are being drafted in the first two rounds. This leaves plenty of value in the later rounds at the position.
Golladay’s current ADP is 24th, so nearly a full round later. His Consistency Score was 4.47 ranking him six spots higher than Hill, and he finished with 40% of his games as a WR1 and only 27% in the WR4+ range. Moreover, he did all of this with Matthew Stafford playing in only eight games in 2019.
Mike Evans is priced in the third round currently, but his CS of 4.88 had him ranked 13 spots ahead of Hill. Evans was a WR1 in 38% of games, showed a ceiling of 37.3 points (9.8 points higher than Hill’s in 2019), and is getting arguably the best quarterback he has ever had.
Amari Cooper who finished the season with a CS of 4.43 and was a top 24 wide receiver in 47% of games played, had a ceiling of 34.1, and has an ADP of 27th overall. If you follow me on Twitter, you know I am not a Cooper “apologist” by any means, yet I am saying he is a better value on draft day than Hill.
These are just a few of the top tier alternatives. You can really dig into the research and find other wide receivers going even later that carry at least an equal amount of upside potential but cost nothing near a first-round pick.
Kansas City’s offense is really good
Reid has done incredible things with that team since coming to the midwest. And we always want a piece of a high-octane offense, but this is a double-edged sword for Hill’s consistency and fantasy football outlook.
The Chiefs have practically no vacated targets, aside from Damien Williams who opted out of the 2020 season. With rookie darling Clyde Edwards-Helaire in place though, that likely doesn’t translate to an increase in target share for Hill at all.
More importantly, Mecole Hardman, who has a similar penchant for big plays, is coming into his second season in the NFL and is apt to have a bigger role in 2020. In terms of real-life football, having Hardman and Hill on the field at the same time is going to be great for Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs. But for fantasy football, the two are apt to cannibalize each other and make for one heck of a headache for fantasy GM’s.
Despite the Chiefs being one of the most high powered offenses in the league, there is actually little reason to think that will help Hill’s consistency.
Tyreek Hill is a terrific player, just not necessarily worth the first-round fantasy buzz
Again, Hill is a good NFL wide receiver. He is going to have weeks where he explodes for fantasy football GMs everywhere. His lack of consistency, however, is just as likely to ghost your team as it is to help it in any given week. Considering you have to pay a first-round draft price for him, that is just simply too rich a premium.
Instead, the savvy GM at the back of the first round should snag the top RB on their rankings before the pool gets empty and then gobble up the value at receiver that is going in the early-mid rounds of drafts. Replacing Hill’s upside isn’t impossible, and finding someone who can provide that upside more consistently isn’t out of the question either (Hint* My Consistency Score Rankings!).