Miami Dolphins wide receiver Tyreek Hill and Jacksonville Jaguars’ Christian Kirk are playing for two of the most disappointing teams in the NFL so far this season. What does that mean for the fantasy football value for each player this week? Here’s a look at the fantasy outlook for both Hill and Kirk.
Should You Start Tyreek Hill or Christian Kirk This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s Consensus Rankings say that Kirk is the player to start. His projected 13.0 points include five receptions and 62 receiving yards. That stat line narrowly outperforms the consensus for Hill (12.3 points, four receptions, and 57 receiving yards)
However, when you isolate my rankings, I see Hill outperforming Kirk. While Miami has significant issues at quarterback, I feel it will make every effort to get Hill the ball as often as possible and allow him to succeed against the New England Patriots.
Tyreek Hill’s Week 5 Fantasy Outlook
Of all the surprises in fantasy football this season, none may be bigger than Hill’s production so far. While obviously, the fallout from the injury to Dolphins quarterback Tua Tagovailoa has been the biggest reason for Hill’s declining numbers, they are still shockingly off what was expected from the All-Pro receiver.
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Last season, Hill was second in fantasy scoring among wide receivers, averaging 23.5 fantasy points per game. After the first four weeks of this season, Hill isn’t even in the top 30 in scoring among wide receivers, coming in at No. 33 (11.9 fantasy PPG).
After his 130-yard performance in Week 1 vs. the Jaguars, Hill has 87 receiving yards over his last three games. Combined.
His performance has even sparked trade rumors that caused Hill to comment this week on social media.
woke up to trade news exciting
— Ty Hill (@cheetah) October 2, 2024
Despite the struggles for Hill and the Dolphins’ offense, there are reasons to expect increased activity for Hill this week. Consider that last week, he was targeted seven times, his most targets since Week 1. Yes, it did translate into a season-low in receiving yards (23), but clearly, the effort is there to try and put the ball in Hill’s hands.
Hill also had three carries for 19 yards last week against the Tennessee Titans after posting just one carry for 12 yards over his first three weeks total.
A continued effort to put the ball in Hill’s hands, along with his playmaking skills, should translate into a better performance in Week 5. Hill also has eight career touchdowns in eight career games vs. the New England Patriots, including one in each game last season.
Christian Kirk’s Week 5 Fantasy Outlook
Kirk has been getting more attention from quarterback Trevor Lawrence the last two weeks, and the production has followed.
In his first two games of the season, Kirk was targeted seven times in total, and he had just two receptions for 29 yards and zero touchdowns. Over his last two weeks, however, Kirk has 22 total targets, with 15 receptions for 140 receiving yards and a touchdown.
The fantasy production splits have been dramatic as well. Over his first two games, Kirk accumulated a total of 4.9 fantasy points. But over his last two games, Kirk has 35 total fantasy points.
It also doesn’t hurt supporters of Kirk that the Jaguars are facing the league’s worst defense in the Indianapolis Colts. The Colts allow nearly 400 yards a game (399.8), so it’s not unreasonable for fantasy managers to expect Kirk to shine in this matchup.
Like the PFN’s Start/Sit Optimizer tool projects, Hill and Kirk could put up similar numbers this week. I just believe that a player of Hill’s talent will continue to struggle.
