Seattle Seahawks wide receiver Tyler Lockett has been a pillar of consistency for the past five seasons. With the Seahawks adding offensive weapons, can he maintain his status as a reliable fantasy WR2? What is Lockett’s fantasy football projection?
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Tyler Lockett’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Lockett’s rookie performance back in 2015 suggested he would go on to become a successful, fantasy-relevant NFL receiver. Unfortunately, it took three years and a Doug Baldwin retirement for him to get there. Once he did, Lockett’s been a fantasy value every year of his career.
In four of the past five seasons, including each of the past three, Lockett has finished higher than his ADP. He’s been remarkably consistent in his overall production, averaging between 13.8 and 16.6 PPR fantasy points per game each of those seasons. He’s never finished lower than WR23.
Last season, Lockett was one of the best values in fantasy football, as managers were down on him as the Seahawks’ WR2 following the departure of Russell Wilson. Little did we know Geno Smith would actually be an upgrade.
None of Lockett’s efficiency numbers were otherworldly last season. He was just a solid, reliable WR2. His 22.8% target share was 26th in the league. His 2.07 yards per route run was also 26th. His 8.8 yards per target was 23rd.
Should You Draft Tyler Lockett This Year?
No one is expecting Lockett to be a WR1. However, every season it seems like something happens that convinces fantasy managers Lockett will regress, and that depresses his ADP. This year is no different.
The Seahawks spent a first-round pick on the rookie WR1, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. JSN’s presence has done nothing to lower DK Metcalf’s ADP. Initially, it depressed Lockett’s, but he’s seen some upward movement recently and is now at WR25, No. 63 overall.
I like Smith-Njigba. He is going to be a good NFL receiver and a quality fantasy receiver one day, likely as soon as 2024. But in 2023, Lockett is still the WR2 on an offense that was surprisingly pass-heavy last season with a 60% neutral game script pass rate.
The Seahawks have put together quite a potent offense with Metcalf, Lockett, JSN, Kenneth Walker III, and Zach Charbonnet. This team is going to score a lot of points.
We already saw what Lockett can do in this offense with Smith last season. JSN provides them with a quality third option in the passing game, something they’ve been severely lacking for years. He’s going to operate out of the slot primarily and consolidate the targets that went to all the ancillary players last year. He’s not taking meaningful targets away from Metcalf or Lockett.
I really do like Lockett a lot this year. However, I can’t seem to get him higher than WR30. It certainly feels too low. There are just a lot of good wide receivers. Despite my ranking of him, I’m in on Lockett once again at cost.
He finished as the WR16 last season. Lockett could regress considerably and still be a value at his current price. Barring a seismic shift in his ADP, Lockett is someone fantasy managers should eye in 2023 fantasy drafts.