Tyler Lockett’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

“Buy low” is a term that gets thrown around a lot in fantasy football leagues. Does Seattle Seahawks receiver Tyler Lockett’s dynasty value profile as such, or was his underwhelming 2023 season simply the beginning of the decline for a veteran receiver likely to get worse before he gets better?

Tyler Lockett’s Dynasty Outlook

Lockett had been one of the most consistent fantasy producers for a half-decade before an underwhelming age-31 season. That’s not an opinion, it’s simply a fact. He headlines the list of the most seasons with at least 950 receiving yards and eight receiving touchdowns from 2018-22:

• Tyler Lockett – 5
• Stefon Diggs – 4
• Mike Evans – 4
• Davante Adams – 4
• Travis Kelce – 4

With some age regression built in, Lockett’s 2023 campaign was a concerning season wrapped in various red flags. He caught just 64.8% of his targets, his lowest rate since 2017. It’s a decline that would be acceptable if the degree of difficulty for those opportunities spiked, but that wasn’t the case.

Last season, Lockett’s average depth of target (aDOT) was more than a full yard below his career norm. That is, he saw his efficiency dip despite seeing targets that profile as more efficient. That’s a problem.

The decline in aDOT resulted in the second-fewest yards per catch of his career (11.3), giving Lockett no real path to a consistently friendly role. The floor continues to lower the more work you put in on his usage patterns.

• 2023: 29.1% of targets in the slot
• 2019-22: 51.5% in the slot

Slot targets are often a way that fantasy receivers age with grace — they’re high-percentage targets that can buoy PPR value, even if the explosive plays are a thing of the past.

You shouldn’t be sad that the Lockett days of extreme fantasy value are gone; you should be happy that they happened.

Lockett’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Lockett land in the dynasty WR landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Soppe’s latest rankings, featuring where Lockett lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

Kyle Soppe’s Top 60 WR Rankings

1) Ja’Marr Chase | CIN
2) Justin Jefferson | MIN
3) Tyreek Hill | MIA
4) CeeDee Lamb | DAL
5) Amon-Ra St. Brown | DET
6) A.J. Brown | PHI
7) Garrett Wilson | NYJ
8) Jaylen Waddle | MIA
9) Chris Olave | NO
10) Tee Higgins | CIN
11) Brandon Aiyuk | SF
12) Puka Nacua | LAR
13) DJ Moore | CHI
14) Nico Collins | HOU
15) Rashee Rice | KC
16) Michael Pittman Jr. | IND
17) Amari Cooper | CLE
18) Cooper Kupp | LAR
19) DeVonta Smith | PHI
20) Stefon Diggs | BUF

21) DK Metcalf | SEA
22) Zay Flowers | BAL
23) Drake London | ATL
24) Jaxon Smith-Njigba | SEA
25) Davante Adams | LV
26) Mike Evans | TB
27) Tank Dell | HOU
28) Jayden Reed | GB
29) Deebo Samuel | SF
30) Calvin Ridley | JAX
31) Jordan Addison | MIN
32) Keenan Allen | LAC
33) Terry McLaurin | WAS
34) George Pickens | PIT
35) Chris Godwin | TB
36) Josh Downs | IND
37) Gabe Davis | BUF
38) Michael Wilson | ARI
39) Jameson Williams | DET
40) Elijah Moore | CLE

41) Romeo Doubs | GB
42) Jerry Jeudy | DEN
43) Christian Kirk | JAX
44) Diontae Johnson | PIT
45) Khalil Shakir | BUF
46) Joshua Palmer | LAC
47) Jahan Dotson | WAS
48) Courtland Sutton | DEN
49) Jakobi Meyers | LV
50) Treylon Burks | TEN
51) Christian Watson | GB
52) DeAndre Hopkins | TEN
53) Marquise Brown | ARI
54) Mike Williams | LAC
55) Tyler Lockett | SEA
56) Zay Jones | JAX
57) Jonathan Mingo | CAR
58) Quentin Johnston | LAC
59) Jalin Hyatt | NYG
60) Noah Brown | HOU

Should You Trade Lockett in Dynasty?

There’s no denying that the ability to earn targets can fade with time. Veteran savviness is important, and I don’t doubt that we will get flashes of that from Lockett over the next season or two.

However, with diminishing physical tools and uneven quarterback play, the days of rock-solid production week-over-week are likely gone.

The primary problem with the age curve is that Lockett has never really been an alpha target earner. He’s banked on efficiency for the bulk of his career, something that worked in a major way when Russell Wilson was under center and even panned out in Geno Smith’s breakout in 2022.

In 2023, Lockett’s per-target production fell off a cliff, and it’s difficult to see that reversing course given the offensive environment in Seattle.

• 2018-22: 1.87 half-PPR points per target
• 2023: 1.34 half-PPR points per target (28.3% decline)

In the trade market, Lockett is an easy sell. There aren’t many signs pointing to a rebound campaign, but his résumé and name cache allow him to hold more value to others than he projects for moving forward.

Moving on from Lockett is something I’d recommend no matter where your roster stands. The fade in production last season seems more likely than not to continue into this season, putting win-now teams in a tough spot if they are banking on him.

MORE: Dynasty Rookie Rankings 2024

Lockett turns 32 years old in September, an age that is still palatable for most. Look to salvage the value you can now before it’s too late!