The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are dealing with several injuries to their pass catchers. Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski are nowhere near returning from heel and back injuries, respectively. Chris Godwin is extremely questionable with a foot issue. That leaves fantasy football managers wondering whether Tyler Johnson is worth inserting into Week 10 lineups.
Tyler Johnson is the clear WR4, which, in this case, is a good thing
Typically, describing a wide receiver as clearly fourth in the pecking order results in immediate dismissal. WR4s are not relevant in fantasy. However, WR4s become relevant when two or three pass-catchers ahead of them aren’t playing.
Over the past two games, Johnson has played 64% and 67% of Tampa Bay’s offensive snaps. In those games, he operated as the WR3 with Brown out. In fact, Johnson out-targeted Mike Evans in Week 8 with 6 to Evans’ 4. Johnson’s upside is considerable if he ascends to the team’s WR2 role.
Is Chris Godwin going to play Sunday?
The strength of the recommendation to start Johnson will increase greatly if Godwin can’t go. Most of the time, we can read the tea leaves on questionable players and figure out whether they will end up playing. Unfortunately, Godwin’s status is one of the few that is a true uncertainty.
Godwin did not practice Wednesday or Thursday with a foot injury. He was able to return Friday for a limited session. The DNP-DNP-LP practice routine is the most difficult to predict. Three DNPs = out 99% of the time. Two limited practices or a full practice on Friday = active 90% of the time. Godwin’s routine is the one truly questionable pattern.
Further confirming the uncertainty surrounding Godwin’s status were comments from Bruce Arians. The Bucs’ head coach said they will see how Godwin’s foot responds and make a decision after pregame warmups.
The bad news is fantasy managers looking to start Johnson won’t know Godwin’s status until Sunday morning. The good news is the Bucs play at 1 PM ET, so we don’t have to roll any dice as often happens with questionable 4 PM ET players.
Should fantasy managers start Johnson this week?
Sometimes, these questions can be straightforward: If the questionable player ends up playing, sit the backup; if not, start him.
With Johnson, he’s startable with or without Godwin. The difference is in how essential it is to get Johnson into your lineup.
What should fantasy managers do with Tyler Johnson if Godwin plays?
Even this question isn’t easy to answer because we could find out Godwin is active but limited. Let’s assume Godwin is active, and there are no reports of any restrictions. That puts Johnson into his WR3 role. In that role, he plays in three-receiver sets and is likely to see around 5-7 targets.
There’s also the added benefit of the Washington Football Team fielding one of the worst pass defenses in the NFL. The Football Team allows the second-most fantasy points to wide receivers and has been absolutely torched through the air all season. If Godwin plays, Johnson is a low-floor WR4. He’s a viable bye week/injury replacement but not a confident start. At the very least, he’s a notch above a desperation streamer.
What should fantasy managers do with Johnson if Godwin doesn’t play?
This is where things get interesting. If Godwin is out, Johnson is looking at a snap share over 80%. He’ll be out there in two-receiver sets opposite Evans. With the Bucs down Godwin, AB, and Gronk, the targets should be very consolidated around Evans, Johnson, and Leonard Fournette.
Tom Brady’s strategy is always to attack an opposing defense’s weakness. He’s fine with running the ball 35 times if that’s what the game plan calls for. This week, the game plan likely calls for a lot of passing.
We can reasonably expect Johnson to push a 20% target share. Without Godwin, Johnson looks like a strong WR3 with a solid floor and a high ceiling.
Stay on top of the latest news Sunday morning and monitor what the beat reporters are saying about how Godwin looks in pregame warmups. Inactives come out every Sunday at 11:30 AM ET. Once we know Godwin’s status, you’ll know what to do with Johnson.