The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Cincinnati Bengals WR Tyler Boyd’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Will Boyd be able to take a larger share of the opportunities this season, and should he be a player you draft this year?
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Tyler Boyd’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
Boyd is talented enough to be a top-two receiver on most teams in the NFL. It just so happens that he is playing alongside two players who are among the top-12 WRs, not just in fantasy, but in the league as a whole, depending on how highly you rate Tee Higgins, as Ja’Marr Chase is an undeniable talent.
The WR33 last season, Boyd is a distant third in Cincinnati’s offense and has been since the team drafted Chase. Boyd was third on the team with a 13.8% target share and 18.35% air-yard share while catching 58 of his 82 targets for 762 yards and five touchdowns.
Boyd is not a possession receiver but a field stretcher, albeit in a different way than Chase. Boyd was 18th in yards per target at 9.3 and ranked 14th in fantasy points vs. man coverage (2.02). It’s the third season in a row Boyd has regressed in targets, receptions, and yards. You have to go back to 2018 for the last time he recorded more than five touchdowns in a season.
Averaging 10.3 PPR points per game, Boyd was a WR2 or better in just 24% of his contests, finishing as a WR3 or worse in 75% of his weeks in 2022. That matches his rolling three-year average of 15% as a WR1, 17% as a WR2, and 68% as a WR3 or worse.
With two seasons of this same trio sharing the field, the patterns are evident, and the only way Boyd can elevate himself into consistent high-WR3 territory would be due to an injury to Chase or Higgins, something no one wants to see happen. But if it did, we know Boyd at least has the skills to maximize his opportunities.
Currently, Boyd is projected to catch approximately 55-60 of his targets in 2023 for 650-675 yards and four touchdowns as part of a loaded Bengals offense.
Should You Draft Tyler Boyd This Year?
In most 12-team formats, Boyd is less of a player to target for production than he is a higher-end bench depth addition.
But as noted, he is not someone whose play on the field can generate a larger opportunity share, and his value is not going to shoot up compared to a breakout candidate you draft in hopes they drastically vault up due to performance.
That, along with his previous three seasons, has played a role in his suppressed ADP as Boyd is being drafted as the WR52 on Underdog Fantasy. Our PFN Consensus Rankings place him in the WR53 spot.
With Boyd, fantasy managers know what to expect. He is a WR3 on the team with some of the best odds to lead the league in passing attempts and has one of the best QBs in Joe Burrow throwing to him.
As a WR5/6, Boyd is a solid known commodity, unlike players such as Nico Collins, Jayden Reed, and Jalin Hyatt, who all go after him but could become breakout players and finish the season higher in standings.
While players like them can raise your floor during the second half of the season or hopefully sooner, players like Boyd, who can be helpful fill-in options for bye weeks or injuries, are needed on complete rosters. While he might be someone you drop for a player with more upside eventually, Boyd is at least worth consideration based on where he is going in drafts.