Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd is one of the better real-life WR3s in the NFL. He’s a proven commodity capable of stepping up when needed. However, he’s firmly behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins in the pecking order. What can fantasy football managers expect from Boyd in the 2022 season, and is he a good value at his current ADP in fantasy football drafts?
Tyler Boyd’s fantasy outlook for 2022
After an old-school third-year breakout in 2018 that saw Boyd post 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game, Boyd’s production has declined each successive season.
Boyd averaged 13.9 ppg in 2019, 12.8 ppg in 2020, and 11.5 ppg in 2021. The sizable drop from 2019 to 2020 coincided with the Bengals drafting Tee Higgins. Then, prior to the 2021 season, they drafted Ja’Marr Chase. Unsurprisingly, Boyd’s 18.4% target share last season marked his lowest since 2017. For a volume guy, that’s a problem.
Boyd has always been a receiver that produces on volume rather than efficiency. His average depth of target dropped to a career-low 7.3 yards last season. That coincided with Boyd leading the NFL in slot snaps.
How the Bengals’ depth chart impacts Tyler Boyd’s fantasy projection for the season
Heading into the 2022 season, it’s really status quo for the Bengals offense. All their key pieces are returning: Joe Burrow, Joe Mixon, Chase, Higgins, and Boyd. While the Bengals consolidate their offensive touches around the latter four players, Boyd is definitively fourth on that list.
Boyd is a must-start whenever elevated to the WR2 role
The thing about Boyd is he’s still capable of producing at a high level. If he had to be Cincinnati’s WR2, he could be. And he’d be a WR2 in fantasy. Last season, Chase played every game, but Higgins missed two. In those two games where Boyd was elevated to the WR2 role, he averaged 9 targets and 17.2 ppg. That’s compared to his usual role, where he averaged 5.6 targets and 11.1 ppg.
Boyd has been a very durable player, missing only four games in the past four seasons. Whenever Higgins or Chase is absent from the lineup, Boyd will be a valuable fantasy option.
The Bengals’ slow pace of play is a problem
Burrow should be able to support all three wide receivers — and to an extent, he does (Boyd being a WR3/4 has value in fantasy). One of the main problems for the Bengals from a fantasy perspective is how slow they play.
Last season, the Bengals ran the fifth-fewest plays per game at just 58. They also played at the second-slowest pace in the NFL, averaging 28.5 seconds per snap. Although they threw the ball at a 60% rate, that percentage was lower than we’d like it to be. They also lost 51 potential pass attempts to sacks, which was the most in the league.
With an improved offensive line and another year of experience for everyone, the Bengals offense could be even better in 2022. Fantasy managers looking to draft Boyd will be banking on the team playing faster and the potential upside that he brings in the event Chase or Higgins miss a game here and there.
Boyd’s ADP for 2022
Boyd’s ADP is around WR50. He’s going as about the 138th player off the board. I like Boyd more than not. He’s going to have games where he produces like a WR3 or better along with the aforementioned upside in the event of a Chase or Higgins injury.
At the same time, I do have some concerns that Boyd may be mostly a handcuff wide receiver. He’s definitely a must-start if he’s in that WR2 role. However, with talks of Chase running more routes from the slot, Boyd’s ceiling could take a hit, as it will further minimize his role as the primary slot receiver.
Other wide receivers are going both before and after Boyd with unknown ceilings. That can be a blessing or a curse, depending on your perspective. On the one hand, we know Boyd can produce if he gets elevated due to an injury in front of him. On the other hand, we know his only real path to making a difference in fantasy lineups is injury.
If you prefer to take a shot on players with more ambiguous situations with standalone upside, then Boyd isn’t for you. This one likely comes down to roster construction for me. If I’ve built a more volatile team, I may want a stabilizing force like Boyd late. If I have a floor-based team, then I’d rather chase the upside of someone other than Boyd.