Cincinnati Bengals wide receiver Tyler Boyd has seen his production steadily decline for four straight seasons. Firmly third behind Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, can Boyd mount some sort of comeback in 2023? Should fantasy football managers draft Boyd at his ADP this season?
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Tyler Boyd’s Fantasy Outlook for the 2023 NFL Season
After a solid rookie campaign and an injury-shortened sophomore season, Boyd broke out in his third year, amassing 1,028 yards and seven touchdowns on 76 receptions. Boyd averaged 15.8 PPR fantasy points per game. He looked poised to be a strong fantasy WR2 for years to come.
As it turned out, not only would 2018 be Boyd’s career year, but he would never come close to those numbers again.
Since 2018, Boyd’s ppg has declined every season, bottoming out at a paltry 10.3 last year, good for a WR45 finish. Since 2019, Boyd has seen his target share, receptions, and yards all decrease every year as well.
Of course, it’s not difficult to figure out why. In 2020, the Bengals drafted Tee Higgins. In 2021, they drafted Ja’Marr Chase. It’s not meant as a slight against Boyd to say either player is better than him.
Last season, even with Chase missing four games, Boyd was only targeted on 13.9% of his routes run (92nd in the league). Despite being second in slot snaps and 15 in total routes run, the volume just wasn’t there for Boyd. Talent commands volume. Boyd doesn’t lack talent, but he does lack the talent of Chase and Higgins.
The frustrating part for Boyd is he’s not a bad player. The Bengals just happen to have two of the 15 best wide receivers in the NFL.
In 2021, Higgins missed two games. In those games, Boyd averaged 17.2 ppg. Last year, in the four games Chase missed, Boyd averaged 11.6 ppg. While certainly not as good, he was at 8.0 ppg in the other 12 games.
The fact remains Boyd is capable of being at least a fantasy WR3 when he’s at least the Bengals’ WR2. Unfortunately, absent an injury to Chase or Higgins, that’s not going to happen.
When a team rosters talents like Chase and Higgins, there’s just not much hope for any other pass catchers. If there’s any silver lining, it’s in the Bengals’ pass-happy ways. Their 65% neutral-game-script pass rate led the league last season.
Given how inefficient Joe Mixon was last year, combined with how little the Bengals addressed the running back position this offseason, they appear poised to lean heavily on the pass once again.
At the same time, it’s difficult to ignore the trend we’ve seen over the past four seasons. Boyd is just not a priority in this passing game.
Much like last season, there will likely be weeks where Boyd has a big game. Playing with Joe Burrow will do that. They just won’t be consistent or predictable.
Last year, Boyd had four games over 13 fantasy points. He will likely have at least that many again. Good luck figuring out when they will be.
Is Boyd a Good Fantasy Pick?
Boyd’s ADP sits at WR56, No. 158 overall. It appears fantasy managers have caught onto the trend and are banking on it continuing.
I have Boyd ranked as my WR50, which is slightly ahead of his WR53 spot in our PFN consensus rankings.
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While the trend surrounding Boyd is concerning, a decline to WR5 production on an offense as prolific as the Bengals’ seems unlikely. At the same time, what exactly is the ceiling outcome? Fantasy managers almost certainly would need an injury to Chase or Higgins to get anything consistently startable out of Boyd, and even then, it may not be more than WR3/4 production.
Boyd is just a safe, boring pick to make in the later rounds. He’s the type of guy who is always too good to drop but never good enough to start. As a result, you really just don’t want him on your team. I would pass on Boyd for more volatile players with higher ceilings.