When the Bengals face the Rams in Super Bowl 56 on Sunday, Tyler Boyd could make waves as a cheap DFS option with surprisingly strong upside. Can this former weekly fantasy football contributor elevate his game against Los Angeles?
Tyler Boyd will exceed Super Bowl expectations if…
Boyd’s muted playoff performances don’t tell the whole story. His three lowest yardage outputs in his past eight games have occurred in the postseason. Yet he remains an unsung hero of this offense, netting a TD or exceeding 100 yards in six of the Bengals’ 13 wins. Four of those victories were by a touchdown or less.
That’s no coincidence, as Joe Burrow has looked to Boyd with the game on the line. During the regular season, Cincinnati’s No. 3 wideout earned 49% of receptions and 51% of his receiving yards while trailing. Both of these percentages are higher than Ja’Marr Chase’s and Tee Higgins’. In fact, Boyd caught more balls in the fourth quarter (22) than Chase (17) or Higgins (14).
Boyd’s path to greatness on Sunday assumes Jalen Ramsey largely locks down Chase, while a hobbled C.J. Uzomah fails to replicate his recent impressive numbers. It also assumes Joe Mixon doesn’t capitalize in the red zone.
Three of Boyd’s last 5 touchdowns have occurred from inside the 10-yard line. The other two were 50+ yard plays. The fact is, Boyd has dangerous potential if he finally earns 7+ targets.
He will underperform in the Super Bowl if…
The Rams’ pass defense has been excellent in their past nine games, yielding only 5 touchdown passes. In fact, on the season, only one team has given up fewer passing TDs. Boyd has netted double-digit targets only once this season, all the way back in Week 4.
[bet-promo id=”160605″ ]If Chase finds space against Ramsey, and if Higgins continues his strong postseason production, Boyd could languish as a distance No. 3 wideout. Additionally, if Uzomah returns to his (recently) customary 6-8 target role, Boyd could find himself as the No. 5 offensive option against a stiff defense. That’s a bad combination, and it makes his floor uncomfortably low.
What are Boyd’s DFS and prop bet outlooks in Super Bowl 56?
Boyd’s fantasy outlook falls somewhere in the 7-11 point range, as a 4-45 receiving line seems realistic. His $5,400 DraftKings price makes him a slight bargain compared to the lowest-floor Van Jefferson ($5,200) and Sony Michel ($5,000). In fact, if Cam Akers ($6,400) continues to struggle, Boyd probably will outproduce him. The question is, “by how much.” Much of Boyd’s value comes down to volume.
Additionally, while Boyd is not a popular name in prop bets, his red-zone and late-game usage make him an intriguing “over” wager if you’re betting on whether he scores, exceeds 4 catches, or tops 45 receiving yards. All three are 50/50 propositions.