Fantasy football managers had high hopes for Atlanta Falcons RB Bijan Robinson heading into his rookie year. However, the talented rookie didn’t quite live up to those lofty projections because Tyler Allgeier had a much larger role than expected in 2023.
Will Allgeier have stand-alone fantasy value again in 2024?
Tyler Allgeier’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
Allgeier’s 2023 production certainly caught some by surprise, as he recorded 186 carries for 683 yards and four rushing touchdowns while working alongside Robinson. He saw just enough volume to finish the season as the RB36 in full-PPR formats.
When you look at Robinson and Allgeier’s rushing numbers side by side, one can quickly realize why Robinson’s fantasy ceiling was a bit capped during his rookie year.
Falcons 2023 Rushing Stats:
- Robinson: 214 carries, 976 yards (4.6 YPC), four TDs
- Allgeier: 186 carries, 683 yards (3.7 YPC), four TDs
Allgeier’s lack of efficiency doesn’t exactly present a compelling case that he should see a similar amount of work in this Atlanta offense in 2024. For additional context, Allgeier saw 35% of the team’s rushing attempts last year, while Robinson clocked in at just 40%.
If that isn’t nauseating enough, consider the fact that Allgeier saw twice as many carries inside the five-yard line as Robinson. That made Allgeier more of a thorn in the side of Robinson’s shareholders than it did elevating Allgeier into a reliable fantasy starter.
However, this frustrating usage came when Arthur Smith was the head coach of the Falcons. That is no longer the case. New head coach Raheem Morris brought Zac Robinson along with him from Los Angeles to serve as the new offensive coordinator for the franchise in 2024.
In case we needed a reminder, the Los Angeles Rams featured Kyren Williams in their backfield last season, and he finished with a league-high 21.7 total touches per game. Of the two backs in Atlanta, Bijan Robinson feels like the clear choice for the feature-back role this upcoming year.
Could this offense generate more scoring opportunities in 2024 with Kirk Cousins under center? Yes, but I believe it will favor Robinson more than Allgeier. I would personally be shocked if Robinson sees just 28 more carries than Allgeier this year.
The third-year RB’s ADP at No. 154 overall — going off the board as the RB47 in the 13th round — implies fantasy managers believe Robinson will certainly see a much larger role this upcoming season. For some context, Ty Chandler, Rico Dowdle, and Chuba Hubbard are all being drafted ahead of Allgeier at this time.
Allgeier is not a bad football player. On the contrary, he has proven he can be a capable back in this league through the first two years of his NFL career. Yet, few people — if any — believe Allgeier should see anywhere near a 50-50 split with Robinson because of the latter’s exceptional playmaking ability.
Can Allgeier still see around 100 carries in 2024? Absolutely. Could he still steal some goal-line work away from Robinson? Possibly. But those two points don’t make enough of a compelling argument that we should expect another low-end RB3 fantasy finish this upcoming season.
The price point isn’t bad, but I’d rather roll the dice on a player who has a bit more upside on draft day.
Jason Katz’s Fantasy Insights on Tyler Allgeier
During the 2024 season, there will still be a role for Allgeier as the clear RB2, but he is not going to see nearly as much volume as he saw last season.
Allgeier is going off the board as the RB47, No. 153 overall. Whether to draft him is purely a philosophical question as to how you want to build your bench.
The running backs around Allgeier mostly have more standalone value, but lack the true upside he has. That upside, of course, is only realizable if Robinson gets hurt.
When drafting handcuff running backs, we are looking for players we are confident would be the clear starter if the lead back went down, and are capable of producing at least a significant percentage of the level of the main guy.
We saw Allgeier in a lead-back role as a rookie. Over the final four games of the 2022 season, Allgeier averaged 17.1 fantasy points per game. Allgeier is nowhere near as good as Robinson. He does not have elite RB1 upside. But could he be a solid RB2 if forced to start? Absolutely.
I have Allgeier ranked as my RB44. However, whether I draft him at that spot would depend on the construction of my roster.
Do I need a running back I can start early in the season if needed? Then I will look elsewhere. But if I’m deep at RB, I can afford to stash Allgeier on my bench as a potential RB in the event of a Robinson injury.