What a ride this year has been for Tyjae Spears already. From Derrick Henry‘s obvious departure to the surprise signing of Tony Pollard, Spears’ fantasy football value has already gone through the wringer. Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?
Tyjae Spears’ Dynasty Outlook
Entering the 2023 season, Spears was quite the polarizing prospect. On the one hand, he had a really impressive final season at Tulane, rushing for 1,581 yards and 21 touchdowns. With an elite burst and a strong receiving profile, Spears looked like a guy who could be a very productive member of a committee.
Them: How excited are you for a Tyjae Spears breakout season next year?
Us: 😏😏😏
(Via @nfl) pic.twitter.com/IfJibMzlza
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 29, 2024
On the other hand, Spears has some ligament damage to one of his knees that leaves questions regarding how long he’ll be able to play football. These injury concerns left NFL teams — and fantasy managers — wondering if he could even make it in the NFL.
Heading into his rookie season, there was no guarantee Spears would even be the clear handcuff to Henry. That made him pretty easy to acquire for a rookie running back, relatively speaking. If you did, I think you’re feeling pretty good right now, but probably not as good as you should be.
As a rookie, Spears played more than anyone could’ve expected, as his snap share was over 50%. Of course, his opportunity share was under 35%, as Henry still dominated touches.
But Spears played enough and was involved enough in the passing game to average 9.0 PPR fantasy points per game. He was not only worth rostering but could be started as a desperation Flex play.
Spears’ 14.7% target share was seventh in the league. He did this in his first season while very clearly not the lead back.
When Spears got the ball in his hand, he was quite effective. He averaged 4.58 yards created per touch, fifth in the league, and had a 26.3% evaded-tackles-per-touch rate, fourth in the league. Despite limited volume, Spears was able to showcase his talent.
Heading into his sophomore season, fantasy managers were hoping the Titans would turn their backfield over to Spears. If not, hopefully, he would be the clear satellite back to a between-the-tackles bruiser at the very least. Instead, we have maximum confusion.
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No one is surprised the Titans added a running back. It was never going to only be Spears, but they could’ve opted to trust Spears as their clear RB1 and added more of a role player. They also could’ve opted to go with a back that has a defined role and a skill set that differs vastly from Spears. They did neither of these things.
The Titans’ decision to go after former Dallas Cowboys RB Tony Pollard is a curious one. Pollard and Spears have very similar skill sets. Both operate best in the satellite back-plus role. That is, we want them maxing out at 10-12 carries while being utilized heavily in the passing game.
Well, someone has to handle the dirty work. Who will it be? Your guess is as good as mine.
Spears’ Dynasty Ranking
Where does Spears land in the dynasty RB landscape after the shake-up of the 2024 free-agency period? Here are PFN’s latest consensus RB rankings, featuring where Spears sits in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Bijan Robinson, RB | Atlanta Falcons
2) Breece Hall, RB | New York Jets
3) Christian McCaffrey, RB | San Francisco 49ers
4) Jonathan Taylor, RB | Indianapolis Colts
5) Jahmyr Gibbs, RB | Detroit Lions
6) Saquon Barkley, RB | Philadelphia Eagles
7) Travis Etienne Jr., RB | Jacksonville Jaguars
8) De’Von Achane, RB | Miami Dolphins
9) Kyren Williams, RB | Los Angeles Rams
10) Isiah Pacheco, RB | Kansas City Chiefs
11) Kenneth Walker III, RB | Seattle Seahawks
12) James Cook, RB | Buffalo Bills
13) Josh Jacobs, RB | Green Bay Packers
14) Javonte Williams, RB | Denver Broncos
15) Rachaad White, RB | Tampa Bay Buccaneers
16) Alvin Kamara, RB | New Orleans Saints
17) Rhamondre Stevenson, RB | New England Patriots
18) D’Andre Swift, RB | Chicago Bears
19) Tony Pollard, RB | Tennessee Titans
20) Derrick Henry, RB | Baltimore Ravens
21) Brian Robinson Jr., RB | Washington Commanders
22) Tyjae Spears, RB | Tennessee Titans
23) Aaron Jones, RB | Minnesota Vikings
24) David Montgomery, RB | Detroit Lions
25) Najee Harris, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
26) Austin Ekeler, RB | Washington Commanders
27) Nick Chubb, RB | Cleveland Browns
28) Joe Mixon, RB | Houston Texans
29) Jaylen Warren, RB | Pittsburgh Steelers
30) James Conner, RB | Arizona Cardinals
Should You Trade Spears in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Spears? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offers to make in seconds!
None of us are privy to the details regarding Spears’ knee. All we can go on is that he was healthy for the 2023 season and did not look to be hampered at all. His knee condition may end up shortening his career, but at 23 years old, I am not going to concern myself with the latter portion of Spears’ career. It’s only just beginning.
The position I took before free agency was Spears would be the 1A in the Titans’ backfield beginning in 2024. Now, I’m not so sure.
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Would the Titans really have gone after Pollard to make him the 1B? That seems unlikely. But if Pollard continues to struggle as he did last season, would they still be reluctant to give Spears more work? I would hope not, but you just never know how a coaching staff will operate.
Sometimes, there’s no clear answer. That’s what we have with Spears. There’s just as good of a chance that he’s a 13-14 points-per-game running back on an improving offense as there is that he’s a random fantasy RB3 playing mostly behind Pollard on a struggling offense.
Given the uncertainty surrounding the roles in the Titans’ backfield, the best course of action for Spears’ fantasy managers is to wait and see. Hold Spears and don’t make any moves until we get more information.
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