The Minnesota Vikings might have been prepared to move forward with Ty Chandler as their lead RB, but they added Aaron Jones in free agency, making this a committee.
How much work are we projecting for Chandler, and what does it mean for his fantasy football value?
Ty Chandler’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 9.2
- Rushing Yards: 601
- Rush TDs: 3.1
- Receptions: 44
- Receiving Yards: 333
- Receiving TDs: 0
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Chandler This Year?
After touching the ball all of three times as a rookie, it seemed quite far-fetched that Chandler could ever stumble into fantasy relevance. Alexander Mattison was entrenched as the starter, and the Vikings went out of their way to trade for Cam Akers to play ahead of Chandler. The 2022 fifth-round pick seemingly had no chance.
As fate would have it, Akers got hurt, thrusting Chandler back into the RB2 role. With Mattison performing incredibly poorly, the Vikings saw no reason to not give Chandler a little bit more work. He looked considerably better than Mattison.
Chandler got his first real chance when Mattison missed Week 15 with a sprained ankle. In his lone game with over 70% of the snaps (he played 81%), Chandler carried the ball 23 times for 132 yards and a touchdown. Upon his return, Mattison did not get his job back.
The Vikings could have opted to go into the 2024 season with Chandler leading their backfield. Instead, they went and signed Jones.
At 29 years old, Jones is not about to suddenly become a three-down back. This is going to be a timeshare. However, with Jones profiling as an excellent pass catcher, Chandler’s role projects to be limited to sharing early-down work. Perhaps he can get goal-line carries, too, but there’s really no way to be sure. That makes projecting Chandler for fantasy quite difficult.
I have this backfield very close to an even split, with Chandler handling about 40% of the carries and a tick more goal-line work. It amounts to him averaging 10.21 fantasy points per game. The PFN consensus projections favor Jones as the lead back a bit more.
Regardless, no one is drafting Chandler because of his stand-alone role as likely the 1-B in this backfield. The idea is that he could be startable in a pinch but also has high RB2 upside in the event something happens to a soon-to-be 30-year-old Jones.
With Jones unable to shake a lingering hamstring strain for much of last season, it’s entirely possible it’s the beginning of a gradual physical decline from a football standpoint. From a talent perspective, Jones didn’t show any signs of decline in 2023. But, if his body can’t handle the rigors of professional football anymore, it would be Chandler who stands to benefit.
Chandler carries an RB47 ADP. I have him ranked at RB42 and the PFN projections put him at RB43 — a negligible difference, especially that late in drafts.
Although the Vikings’ offense is not going to be what it was with Kirk Cousins, we saw Chandler perform well with backup and third-string quarterbacks last season. There’s upside here. He’s the type of running back fantasy managers should target as their RB4 or RB5.
