Minnesota Vikings running back Ty Chandler finds himself with an opportunity to secure the team’s RB2 role behind Alexander Mattison in the wake of Dalvin Cook’s release. Is he likely to win the job, and could he possibly have standalone value? What is Chandler’s fantasy football projection for 2023?
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Ty Chandler’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
For the first time in six years, Cook is not the starting running back for the Vikings. That job now belongs to Mattison. For each of the past four seasons, the Vikings’ backfield has been one of the easiest to predict for fantasy purposes. Cook was the starter. Mattison was the backup. When healthy, Cook played all three downs, and Mattison only saw the field when Cook was tired.
This season, fantasy analysts seem to be split on whether Mattison will be used like Cook or whether the team’s RB2, whoever it ends up being, will see more work than Mattison did behind Cook.
Regardless of which way it plays out, who wins the Vikings’ RB2 job matters a lot in fantasy football. At the bare minimum, that guy will be the presumptive handcuff to Mattison.
There are three candidates for the job. We have 2021 fourth-rounder Kene Nwangwu, 2022 fifth-rounder Chandler, and 2023 seventh-rounder DeWayne McBride.
All three guys were Day 3 picks, which means none of them really have any sort of leg up on the other. This is a rare case where the job may simply go to whoever performs the best in training camp and the preseason.
Chandler appears to be the favorite for the job. Despite having just one NFL season under his belt, Chandler is already 25 years old. He played in just three games last year and touched the ball six times. We’re still basing his projection on his college profile.
Chandler has elite 4.38 speed, good for a 93rd percentile speed score at his size. However, he really just runs very fast in a straight line. He’s not particularly strong and has abysmal burst and agility scores.
Even if Chandler opens as the RB2, McBride should be considered a credible threat, given his elite college production. While McBride was a seventh-round pick, there’s not that much difference between two unestablished fifth- and seventh-rounders.
As for Nwangwu, despite having the highest draft capital of the bunch, he is primarily a special teamer, and I don’t really envision that changing. Even in a scenario where Mattison and whoever is the backup get hurt, the Vikings would likely sign someone before giving Nwangwu more than a handful of touches a game.
Should You Draft Ty Chandler This Year?
If by the time your drafts roll around, Chandler is the favorite to be Mattison’s primary backup, then he’s at least worth a spot on fantasy rosters. The lead running back on the Vikings’ offense has value. This is a team that scored 48 touchdowns last season.
With that said, Mattison’s role behind Cook was so minimal that during prolonged stretches of Cook being healthy, many fantasy managers were unable to keep Mattison on the roster. And that’s a backup running back we know with 100% certainty was not only the handcuff but would be able to provide 100% of the starter’s production in the event of an injury.
For Chandler, the confidence in him as the clear handcuff is low, and the amount of production we can project him to provide is certainly nowhere near 100%.
Last season, Mattison saw just a 21.4% opportunity share, with Cook playing 16 games. Despite his quality performance filling in for Cook multiple times from 2019-2021, Mattison didn’t earn any additional work. He remained a pure backup.
Will the Vikings use Mattison like Cook for a full season? My inclination is mostly yes. That means Chandler (or whoever wins the backup role) will not have standalone value.
Fantasy managers are not sure whether it will be Chandler or McBride as the handcuff to Mattison. Chandler’s ADP sits at RB68, No. 224 overall. McBride is a couple of spots higher at RB66. The difference — that late in drafts — is largely meaningless.
I have Chandler at RB61. While the guy who would likely take over for Mattison is someone I’m interested in, I have little confidence it will be Chandler, nor do I have confidence that Chandler wouldn’t be just part of a committee. Chandler is not someone I am targeting in 2023 fantasy drafts.
