Minnesota Vikings running back Ty Chandler saw his usage spike toward the end of last season, and the hope was that he’d assume a featured role after the team waived Alexander Mattison.
That, however, did not pan out, as the Vikings brought in veteran Aaron Jones to handle the heavy lifting. This became an immediate threat to Chandler’s fantasy football standing.
Will Jones prove to be the feature back he was during his time with the Green Bay Packers (15.9 touches per game over the past two seasons), or will the 29-year-old see a reduction in responsibilities?
Ty Chandler’s 2024 Fantasy Forecast
I’m not a scout, nor do I pretend to be one. I’m also not a psychologist, but this Jones situation seems to be pretty straightforward. Allow me to simplify things.
A win-now Packers team didn’t mind letting him walk, and a win-tomorrow Minnesota team picked him up. That tells me that his best football is very much in the rearview mirror.
Green Bay didn’t label him as an asset during this title window, electing to pay up for youth (Josh Jacobs signed a four-year, $48 million deal two days after the Vikings signed Jones away from their division rival).
Minnesota, on the other hand, is in a developmental year where it values veteran wisdom over elite on-field upside.
So yeah, I’m out on the idea of Jones being the fantasy football weapon he has been in years past, and that puts Chandler in an interesting spot. He has caught multiple passes in each of his past five games with at least 10 carries — a level of versatility that isn’t easy to find outside of the first 10 rounds of a fantasy draft.
We only have 129 NFL touches to judge Chandler, and with only one collegiate season of 150 or more touches, his evaluation requires some guesswork. What we can say with confidence is that he runs hard, or, at the very least, he’s good at falling forward.
Touchdown Ty Chandler!
📺: MINvsCIN @NFLNetwork
📱: Stream on #NFLPlus https://t.co/vtmfEKvOLy pic.twitter.com/O8u6w4GMCV— NFL (@NFL) December 16, 2023
That may not seem like the sexiest of skills, but if he can carve out a 10-to-15-touch role, he’s going to be on flex radars. A season ago, 49 running backs had at least 100 carries, and Chandler ranked seventh among them in the percentage of carries that gained yardage.
For reference, here is what the back end of that metric’s top 10 looked like:
7. Ty Chandler: 86.3%
8. Christian McCaffrey: 84.9%
9. De’Von Achane: 84.5%
10. Derrick Henry: 84.3%
I’m going to guess you didn’t think you’d see those four names on the same statistical list. Chandler isn’t on par with those fantasy superstars, but the fact that he’s been viable when given the opportunity is encouraging if you’re buying my argument that he could find himself on the plus side of a committee with time.
Even if you’re not with me, the contingent value is worth a dart throw at his current price. Jones has missed multiple games in three of the past four seasons, including six DNPs in 2023.
As we sit here at the beginning of August, Chandler’s ADP isn’t overly appealing to me despite my praise. MarShawn Lloyd and Jaylen Wright are secondary options in far better offenses that I’d rather buy stock in. Tyrone Tracy Jr. and Kimani Vidal are two rookies that I think have a better chance at winning the lead job outright.
With all of that said, I’m expecting those to be common names on sleeper lists and, thus, see their ADPs rise as we close in on your draft date.
It’s unlikely that Chandler’s price will change much, and if that occurs, he’ll be a consistent 12th-round pick that I’m making.