The Miami Dolphins are fighting for their playoff lives. Locked in an incredibly tight AFC Wild Card race, the odds were already against them. Now, they have received word that their star quarterback Tua Tagovailoa will be doubtful for their Week 17 matchup due to a hip injury.
What Happened to Tua Tagovailoa?
As NFL fans were getting set to watch a Week 17 Saturday triple-header, ESPN’s Adam Schefter reported that Tagovailoa would be doubtful for the team’s game against the Cleveland Browns on Sunday.
Dolphins are downgrading Tua Tagovailoa to doubtful for Sunday’s game at Cleveland due to a hip injury, per sources. Tagovailoa still is pushing to play Sunday, but if he can’t, Tyler Huntley would be in line to replace him. pic.twitter.com/jhNzzouK5F
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) December 28, 2024
Schefter revealed that Tua suffered the injury in Week 15 after taking a hit. It got worse in Week 16 and now might sideline the QB in a crucial matchup.
With the Pittsburgh Steelers having clinched a playoff spot, there are five teams battling for two spots in the AFC. The Dolphins are in a pretty good spot regarding tiebreakers, having the advantage over the Los Angeles Chargers, Denver Broncos, and Cincinnati Bengals. Unfortunately, both teams not only have a better record than the Dolphins but are two full games ahead of them.
Miami’s path involves creating a logjam at 9-8 with the right teams and winning tiebreakers.
To break it all down as simply as possible, here is the Dolphins’ path to the playoffs:
- Dolphins finish 2-0
- Broncos or Chargers finish 0-2
- Colts lose at least one more game
There is a very real chance the Dolphins are eliminated on Saturday, as both the Chargers and Broncos have winnable games. The Chargers are 4.5-point favorites against the Patriots. While the Broncos are 3.5-point underdogs against the Bengals, the Broncos have a Chiefs team on tap in Week 18 that will be resting starters.
If Tua misses the game on Sunday, it will be his fifth missed game of the season. In the 11 he did play in, Tua’s QB+ score is 86.3 (B grade), which ranks eighth in the league among qualified QBs.
MORE: 2024 NFL QB Rankings
While he is eighth in the league and his top three games of the season came in Weeks 9, 11, and 12, after he returned from his concussion, he has fallen off of late. His worst two QB+ scores of the season occurred in Weeks 15 and 16.
In 2023, he played all 17 games and recorded an 80.3 season score, 12th in the NFL.
Tyler “Snoop” Huntley will start for Miami. In his two games starting in which he qualified for a score earlier this season, he recorded a D and D+.
Tagovailoa’s Fantasy Outlook
It’s not hard to argue that the quarterback position in Miami has proven to be as impactful as any when discussing the fantasy ripple effect. This season, De’Von Achane averages 122.6% more PPR points per touch with Tagovailoa under center than Huntley.
It’s obviously not a huge sample, but there’s no denying that Achane’s role is more valuable with Tagovailoa under center due to the pressure it puts on the opposing defense — his percentage of carries gaining 5+ yards moves up from 33.3% with Huntley to 40.7% with Tagovailoa.
His numbers in the passing game are exactly what your eyes tell you, and that’s overwhelmingly different. With Tagovailoa this season, Achane averaged 2.13 PPR points per target and owns a 24.1% on-field target share, rates that dwarf those with Huntley (1.32 and 11.8%, respectively).
For the passing game, the decline is just as, if not more, magnified.
- With Tagovailoa: 4.1% production over expectation, 1.9 yards/route, and 11.5 aDOT
- With Huntley: 35% production below expectation, 1.5 yards/route, and 16.8 aDOT
- With Tagovailoa: 23.4% production over expectation, 1.9 yards/route, and 10.6 aDOT
- With Huntley: 30.4% production below expectation, 1.4 yards/route, and 8.1 aDOT
The production changes as a result of a significantly different role. Hill is still a low-end starter in most spots, though the floor/ceiling decline makes benching him a real conversation.
Waddle is also at less than full strength, making his outlook cloudy as the WR2. He’s a talented player, and the dip in aDOT makes a viable performance possible but not projectable, and that has him sitting outside of my starting tier.