After a hot start last season, Tua Tagovailoa was unable to sustain his QB1 level of production. Now another year more experienced in Mike McDaniel’s system, does Tagovailoa’s projection suggest significant improvement? Should fantasy football managers target the Miami Dolphins signal-caller?
Tua Tagovailoa’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 17.4
- Passing Yards: 4,373
- Pass TDs: 28.4
- Rushing Yards: 114
- Rush TDs: 1.3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Tagovailoa This Year?
We know what Tagovailoa’s upside is. He showcased it at the beginning of last season, posting 28.1 fantasy points and finishing as the week’s top quarterback. He underwhelmed in Week 2 but then exploded for another 28.2 points in Week 3.
The next few weeks weren’t as good, but Tua had plenty of usable games, including 18.9, 22.5, and 22.8 fantasy points. Unfortunately, that was the last of Tagovailoa’s fantasy value.
From Week 9 through the end of the season, he didn’t register a single game of 20 fantasy points. Tua had as many games under 10 (two) as over 18. He finished the season as the overall QB16, averaging 16.7 fantasy points per game.
To properly project him going forward, we have to figure out why Tagovailoa wasn’t usable for the entire second half of last season. Did he play poorly? Not really.
Tua led the NFL with 4,624 passing yards. He threw 29 touchdowns, tied for fifth-most in the league, and completed 69.3% of his passes, which would be best in most years. The 14 interceptions weren’t great, but they have a negligible impact on his fantasy points per game.
This Dolphins offense is capable of scoring a lot of points. They scored 57 touchdowns last season. If they perform at a similar level this year, Tagovailoa can probably exceed his TD total from last season.
By no means is 29 a low number. However, when an offense scores 57 times, we’d expect the QB to account for at least 35 of them. Instead, Raheem Mostert and De’Von Achane combined for 26 touchdowns on the ground.
In my projections, I have a handful of those shifting to the air, with Tagovailoa projected for 32.2 passing touchdowns. Combined with 4,830 passing yards, I have him averaging 19.05 fantasy points per game, which would be a career-high.
Even with this improvement, Tagovailoa only projects as the QB11, with not much separating him from the QB15. The PFN consensus projections have Tua as QB15, which is actually where I have him ranked.
Why rank Tagovailoa below his projection? We need upside. We need difference-makers. For Tagovailoa to reach 20+ fantasy points, he’s going to need a 40-touchdown season. It’s very difficult for non-mobile QBs to be top-half QB1s in modern fantasy football.
Tagovailoa did lose some weight this offseason to become more elusive in the pocket. That should help him extend plays better. However, he’s not about to become even Justin Herbert in terms of mobility. Without any semblance of rushing production, it’s hard to get excited about him.
Ultimately, Tagovailoa’s QB14 ADP is more than fair. If you’re the last team in your league to take a quarterback, he’s a safe bet. But there are plenty of other pure pocket passers that go around him, meaning there’s no reason to reach for his profile.
Derek Tate’s Analysis of Tua’s Fantasy Value
- Durability and Performance: Tagovailoa put his durability concerns to rest in 2023, playing all 17 games and leading the league with 4,624 passing yards and 29 touchdowns, finishing as QB9 overall.
- Advanced Metrics: Tagovailoa’s success wasn’t just due to his playmakers; he led the NFL with the lowest time to throw (2.36 seconds) and ranked second in air yards per attempt (5.1). He also led the league in deep passes, attempting seven throws of 50+ yards.
- Offensive Mastery: Tagovailoa’s ability to process defenses and deliver pinpoint passes at all three levels of the field was key to Miami’s explosive passing game, proving he’s more than just a product of his environment.
- Struggles Against Winning Teams: While Tagovailoa struggled against teams with winning records in 2023, factors like a makeshift offensive line contributed to these challenges. This could improve with a healthier and more stable offensive line in 2024.
- Offensive Additions: The additions of Odell Beckham Jr., Jonnu Smith, and rookie WRs Malik Washington and Tahj Washington could bolster Tagovailoa’s fantasy outlook, though the core of Miami’s offense remains the same.
- Consistent Fantasy Floor: Tagovailoa has provided a stable fantasy floor over the past two seasons, averaging 18.4 fantasy points per game in 2022 and 16.7 in 2023. With the same supporting cast, similar production can be expected in 2024.
- ADP Analysis: Tagovailoa’s ADP at QB14, behind Jared Goff and Brock Purdy, reflects concerns about his injury history and lack of rushing upside. However, given his favorable situation, he offers solid value in this range if you’re willing to overlook those concerns.
- Final Verdict: If you’re comfortable with Tagovailoa’s injury history, he’s a strong pick in the mid-rounds, offering QB1 potential in a high-powered offense. However, if those concerns give you pause, you might consider passing on a quarterback in this range altogether.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Tua Tagovailoa
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis. Since Tagovailoa is ranked outside the top 75 in the PFN Consensus Rankings, we’ve listed the consensus QB rankings instead.
11) Jordan Love, QB | Green Bay Packers
12) Kirk Cousins, QB | Atlanta Falcons
13) Jayden Daniels, QB | Washington Commanders
14) Caleb Williams, QB | Chicago Bears
15) Jared Goff, QB | Detroit Lions
16) Tua Tagovailoa, QB | Miami Dolphins
17) Justin Herbert, QB | Los Angeles Chargers
18) Trevor Lawrence, QB | Jacksonville Jaguars
19) Aaron Rodgers, QB | New York Jets
20) Matthew Stafford, QB | Los Angeles Rams
21) Deshaun Watson, QB | Cleveland Browns
