The 2023 fantasy football season is here, meaning now is the time to dive into Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa’s fantasy projections to determine whether or not managers are receiving a value on draft day. Can Tagovailoa stay healthy and lead the Dolphins as expected, and should he be a player you draft this year?
Behind in research? Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — our Fantasy Football Draft Kit, Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator, and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Tua Tagovailoa’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
2022 was a de facto prove-it year for Tua. At least, that’s what the outside noise suggested. Narratives swirled by fans, media, and the fantasy realm, questioning whether Tua could be “the guy” and stay healthy.
Miami went all-in to place Tua in the best situation possible. They brought in Mike McDaniel as head coach, and while there were some moments where his inexperience showed, the change in the scheme made Miami a deadly threat, especially with the combination of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill.
But was it a success for Tua? Yes and no. For one, Tagovailoa, when on the field and in tempo, was great. His highs were what we had expected. Tua took advantage of the new offense, which capitalized on what he does well. From a per-game basis, Tagovailoa was fifth in yards (272.9) and 11th in points per game (18.4 PPR).
Additionally, Tua was second in EPA+CPOE, second in air yards per attempt (9.7), No. 1 in passer rating (105.5) and touchdown percentage (6.3%), and he carried a 3.1:1 TD-to-INT ratio. His 17.9 PPR/g was the 10th-best in the league.
Although he found success on the field, Tua’s injury concerns have gone nowhere. If anything, they’re more prevalent now due to the highly publicized and noted concussions he dealt with last year. While he had two confirmed, it feels unquestionable that Tagovailoa had at least three.
Due to the missed games, Tua was 15th in fantasy on the year, as he played in just 13 games. Not only was Tagovailoa unable to play in the final two weeks of the regular season, but he also missed the Wild Card matchup with Buffalo, was removed from the Pro Bowl, and made some interesting comments about retirement thoughts.
It’s not the play on the field that concerns anyone. His durability and the fact he wasn’t able to clear testing for so long creates a massive red flag.
Even if we remove the games where he left due to injury, Tua was a QB1 in only 54.5% of his games. But even in the games he was a QB2, his average of 17.35 PPR won’t ever hurt you in a given week. The concern is less to do with his play than it is keeping him active.
While judging injuries in projections is never easy, with Tua, you almost have to factor in a few missed games at this point, as history says it is more likely to happen than not. He’ll have a good season when healthy, as projections have Tua hovering around 3,800 to 4,000 yards with 26 to 30 touchdowns on 520 or so attempts, but it all depends on games played at this point. These numbers are based on 15 games in 2023 for Tua.
Should You Draft Tua Tagovailoa This Year?
This is going to be an individual manager’s choice. You are the only one who knows how risk-averse or aggressive you’re willing to build a roster in fantasy football. There are risks I might be willing to take that you wouldn’t be, and vice versa.
For players with an injury history or coming off a down year like Javonte Williams, Derrick Henry, and Odell Beckham Jr., there is always a concern but room for value. Tua is a part of this list of names.
I still have Tua ranked as my QB11, so it’s not as if I am saying to avoid him altogether like one of my many toxic exes. If he plays in 16+ games, Tua will finish as a QB1, and I feel very confident in that assessment.
There is simply too much talent and firepower on this Dolphins offense around Tua for him to struggle mightily. Plus, he’s just a darn good quarterback, even if he doesn’t have all the tools.
Due to his durability concerns, I expect Tua to go off the board somewhere between the QB11 and QB14 range. He’s being lumped together in the group of Kirk Cousins, Geno Smith, Daniel Jones, Aaron Rodgers, and even Dak Prescott.
If I have to make a bet on which one of these quarterbacks is most likely to outperform their ADP by a wide margin, I would put my money on Tua. With an ADP expected to hover between 90 and 100, which would be a late seventh to early ninth-round pick, the draft day upside is worth it for Tua if you are comfortable taking on the injury risk.
If Tua was being drafted as a top eight or nine QB, I would likely stay away from him, but I am comfortable taking a bit of a discount to grab the leader of one of the league’s most potent offenses.
Those opting for the late-round QB draft strategy will likely end up with a ton of shares of Tua, and I don’t think that will be a bad thing, especially given the additional value you’re finding after one of the earlier rounds where QBs are being gobbled up like Hungry Hungry Hippos.