If you had to pick the most polarizing player in fantasy football heading into the 2021 NFL season, odds are Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa would be at the top of the list. As he enters the season as Miami’s undisputed QB1, can Tua take that next step forward many want to see, or is his fantasy outlook going to lead to disappointment again even at his mid-level ADP?
Tua Tagovailoa’s fantasy outlook for 2021
Even just as a passive observer, I am still shocked at how quickly fans are giving up on Tua. Have we lost perspective on how damn hard it is to play quarterback in the NFL? Now, don’t get me wrong. Tua did give plenty of reason for people to doubt him heading into 2021.
Playing in 10 games (nine starts), Tua completed 64.1% of his passes (186 of 290) for 1,814 yards and 11 touchdowns with 5 interceptions. He also rushed for 109 yards and 3 TDs on 39 attempts. His conservative nature was a sticking point to both fans and the organization.
His 7.2 average throw depth was 42nd in the NFL. Only 10% of Tua’s throws were beyond 20+ yards downfield (23rd). On those throws, he had a 76.7 passer rating (25th). Since 2000, Tua’s 9.75 yards per completion ranks 49th of 51 rookie QBs with eight-plus starts in a single season. Because of this, you saw head coach Brian Flores bench Tua for Ryan Fitzpatrick — he wasn’t the type of QB who could be aggressive enough to mount a comeback.
Things weren’t much better for fantasy, ending the season as the QB32 and 29th in points per game (14.0). But there were bright spots. In games where Tua both started and finished, he averaged 17.6 points, including his 5.7-point performance in Week 8 when he made his NFL debut.
But remember, he did this after a devastating injury, multiple surgeries in a COVID-shortened offseason, and on a team lacking receiver talent. Tua now has a completely revamped receiving corps to throw to that fits his skill set, an upgraded OL, and he’s had the entire offseason to prepare as the starter. I am not saying he is a must-start, but Tua’s fantasy outlook is far better in 2021 than some are giving him credit for.
Tua Tagovailoa’s fantasy projection
Tua came into the 2020 season already having his durability questioned. Every move he made was going to be under the magnifying glass that only the NFL can provide. It also didn’t help that Justin Herbert was excelling at the same time.
Here’s the thing; what Herbert did was an outlier. From 2010 to 2020, 33 QBs had been selected in Round 1 of the NFL Draft. Of those players, only five went on to have top-12 fantasy finishes. Even QBs taken No. 1 overall had an average fantasy finish as the QB16. The vast majority of those players were also walking into a wide-open QB room — something Tua was not afforded. That changes in 2021.
After moving on from Chan Gailey, the Dolphins chose Eric Studesville and George Godsey as co-offensive coordinators. What does this mean? It means we likely will see more creative playcalling. The offense will blend college and professional schemes, using more RPOs and featuring tempo, shifts, and motions. This literally describes the style of offense that Tua can thrive in with his accuracy and decision-making abilities.
Not only is he in a better offense, but he has a far better group of pass catchers to target with Will Fuller, Jaylen Waddle, DeVante Parker, and Mike Gesicki. There is a realistic path to where Tua throws for 4,200-4,400 yards with 27-30 touchdowns in 2021 with close to 200 yards and 3 more scores on the ground.
Tua Tagovailoa’s fantasy ADP
According to Sleeper, Tua is currently the QB23 with an ADP of 154.2 in PPR formats. In superflex formats, where quarterbacks have an increased value, he rises to 82.3. However, on Fleaflicker, he is going as the QB22 at an ADP of 153. Meanwhile, in NFC (a high-stakes fantasy platform), Tua is the QB22 with a 139.4 ADP.
Should you draft Tua in 2021 for fantasy?
I believe the hate has gone too far for Tua in fantasy, as his fantasy outlook has surpassed his ADP.
In 1QB formats, I don’t think he will be a week-in/week-out starter. There are other QBs with a higher upside (especially on the ground) that are more appealing. Plus, QBs like Ryan Tannehill and Matthew Stafford, who are low-end QB1s, have a proven track record. But as a bye-week fill-in or spot starter, Tua could be a fantastic option.
Where I think Tua shines for fantasy is as a QB2 in superflex formats. Indeed, QBs tend to fly off the draft boards, and he could be an incredible value in the late-sixth/early-seventh round.
Tommy Garrett is a writer for Pro Football Network covering the NFL and fantasy football and a member of the FSWA (Fantasy Sports Writers Association). You can read more of his work here and follow him at @TommygarrettPFN on Twitter.