The Miami Dolphins will face the Cleveland Browns in Week 17. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding QB Tua Tagovailoa.
Is Tua Tagovailoa Playing in Week 17?
Updated at 2:35 PM ET on Sunday, December 29
Tagovailoa is inactive for today's game.
Tagovailoa was limited at practice all week with a hip issue. On Saturday, the Dolphins downgraded him to doubtful. Per ESPN’s Adam Schefter, Tagovailoa is still pushing to play, but if he cannot go, Tyler Huntley will start in place of him.
We’ll continue to monitor the Dolphins’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Tua Tagovailoa in Week 17?
Tua Tagovailoa is far from a perfect fantasy quarterback. He doesn’t run (two rushing yards thus far in December), and he doesn’t stretch the field through the air. Instead, he relies fully on his playmakers to do the heavy lifting.
That’s not a profile I make a habit of investing in, especially with one of those pieces (Jaylen Waddle) battling a knee injury, but I think this has the potential to be the week — the week where you cash a nice DFS lineup courtesy of an explosive Dolphins game at low ownership.
Think about it.
Tagovailoa is unlikely to attract ownership for the reasons mentioned above. He’s also not in great form (411 passing yards with more interceptions than touchdowns over the past two weeks), and this game is being played in the Northeast.
But wait.
Is a warm front coming up the coast for the week?
But wait.
Do the Browns rank 31st in deep pass interception rate and 32nd in yards per short completion?
If either the Chargers or Broncos lose this week (both play before Miami is scheduled to kick off), the Dolphins will still have postseason life. It would be little more than a pulse, but that heart would still be beating if one of those things happens, thus giving us a high-motivation spot against a defense that is playing out the string (all four losses during their current skid have come by multiple scores).
Interesting.
Obviously, I’d prefer Waddle be healthy and to get a Denver loss on Saturday to ensure these things, but the more ambiguity that takes place, the more I like the odds of getting a condensed passing game with upside at a very low cost.
Tentative Main Slate Soppe DFS Lineup
- QB – Tua Tagovailoa
- RB – Jonathan Taylor
- RB – Jerome Ford
- WR – Tyreek Hill
- WR – Jayden Reed
- WR – Adam Thielen
- TE – Chig Okonkwo
- FLEX – Jalen McMillan
- D/ST – Indianapolis Colts
Let’s pay off some Christmas debt!
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Week 17 Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Tua Tagovailoa’s Fantasy Points Projection in Week 17
As of Sunday morning, Tagovailoa — if he plays — is projected to score 16.8 fantasy points in Week 17. This includes 253.8 passing yards, 1.6 passing touchdowns, and 0.8 interceptions. It also includes 2.4 rushing attempts for 7.9 yards and 0.1 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Browns' Defense
The Cleveland Browns have fared better against Joe Burrow and the Cincinnati Bengals than most defenses over the years. That was true back in Week 7, when Cleveland delivered its best Defense+ grade of the season (82.5) against Cincinnati.
The rematch didn't go quite as well for the Browns, who limited the Bengals to their fifth-lowest point total of the season but still posted a mediocre 73.1 (C) grade. That was Cleveland's third-lowest Defense+ grade of the season, though that's more a reflection of the Browns' admirable consistency.
Twelve of Cleveland's 15 games this year have been in the C-range, with two Bs and one D.
Cleveland's defense has done a tremendous job of generating pressure without turning enough of those dropbacks into sacks. Sunday was a reversal, as the Browns checked in below their season average in non-blitz pressure rate (39.3%) but delivered their third-highest sack rate (11.8%). Two of Cleveland's five highest sack rates this season have been against Burrow and the Bengals.
Overall, Cleveland's defense hasn't dropped off as much as some might perceive, even though the highlight-worthy plays haven't been as evident. This unit remains a strength as long as Myles Garrett and the talented secondary are in place.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Tua Tagovailoa’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 7:25 AM ET on Sunday, December 29. If you're in a Superflex league, make sure you check out our Weekly Consensus Superflex Rankings.
Week 17 QB PPR Rankings
1) Josh Allen | BUF (vs. NYJ)
2) Lamar Jackson | BAL (at HOU)
3) Joe Burrow | CIN (vs. DEN)
4) Jayden Daniels | WAS (vs. ATL)
5) Baker Mayfield | TB (vs. CAR)
6) Sam Darnold | MIN (vs. GB)
7) Kyler Murray | ARI (at LAR)
8) Jordan Love | GB (at MIN)
9) Bo Nix | DEN (at CIN)
10) Jared Goff | DET (at SF)
11) Brock Purdy | SF (vs. DET)
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA (at CLE)
13) Matthew Stafford | LAR (vs. ARI)
14) C.J. Stroud | HOU (vs. BAL)
15) Justin Herbert | LAC (at NE)
16) Patrick Mahomes | KC (at PIT)
17) Caleb Williams | CHI (vs. SEA)
18) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ (at BUF)
19) Geno Smith | SEA (at CHI)
20) Bryce Young | CAR (at TB)
21) Cooper Rush | DAL (at PHI)
22) Joe Flacco | IND (at NYG)
23) Russell Wilson | PIT (vs. KC)
24) Michael Penix Jr. | ATL (at WAS)
25) Drake Maye | NE (vs. LAC)
26) Aidan O'Connell | LV (at NO)
27) Tyler Huntley | MIA (at CLE)
28) Mac Jones | JAX (vs. TEN)
29) Kenny Pickett | PHI (vs. DAL)
30) Mason Rudolph | TEN (at JAX)
31) Drew Lock | NYG (vs. IND)
32) Spencer Rattler | NO (vs. LV)
33) Dorian Thompson-Robinson | CLE (vs. MIA)
Dolphins at Browns Trends and Insights
Miami Dolphins
Team: The dream remains—Miami hasn’t had a losing season since 2019 (they hadn’t had five straight winning seasons from 1997 to 2003).
QB: In 2022, Tua Tagovailoa averaged 9.6 air yards per throw. That rate dropped to 7.6 last season and sits at 5.7 through 16 weeks this season.
Offense: Over their past three games, 35.5% of Dolphin drives have resulted in a made field goal.
Defense: Miami has held their opponent out of the end zone in the majority of their red zone trips over their past three games (seven-of-13).
Fantasy: Tyreek doesn’t have a catch gaining more than 30 yards since Week 1 and has caught just five of 14 targets over the past two weeks (Week 14 vs NYJ: 10 catches on 14 targets)
Betting: Including the playoffs, the Dolphins are 2-10 ATS in their last 12 with a kickoff temperature under 40 degrees.
Cleveland Browns
Team: The Browns have locked in their ninth last-place divisional finish in 14 seasons.
QB: Dorian Thompson-Robinson posted a 63.5 (D) QB+ grade, the eighth-worst game by a Browns QB since 2019. Thompson-Robinson has only had five career qualifying games (15+ pass attempts), and yet, he has three of the eight worst games by a Browns QB since 2019.
Offense: The Browns have not scored in the first, second, or fourth quarters in consecutive games.
Defense: The list of quickest players to 100 career sacks now has Myles Garrett on it:
- Reggie White: 96 games played
- DeMarcus Ware: 113
- Bruce Smith: 115
- Myles Garrett: 115
Fantasy: Jerome Ford has seven games with 10+ touches this season and has produced 7.7% over expectations in the process.
Betting: The Browns are 0-4 ATS at home this season when not facing a divisional opponent (average cover margin: -13.8 PPG).