Even during the offseason, fantasy football values are constantly shifting. Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa had a scorching hot start to last season but was largely disappointed from a fantasy perspective.
Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the offseason?
Tua Tagovailoa’s Dynasty Outlook
After the first three weeks of the 2023 season, I was kicking myself for not targeting Tagovailoa more in redraft leagues. Head coach Mike McDaniel is one of the most brilliant offensive minds who runs a pass-first offense that focuses on getting the ball to his best players.
Even if Tagovailoa is just an elite game manager in the mold of Alex Smith, he’s capable of executing when throwing to the likes of Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle.
Tagovailoa posted two 28-point fantasy outings in his first three games. He looked poised to be the late-round QB darling of 2023. It’s wild to look back on it now and realize not only did Tua never reach those heights again, but he never even came close.
From Weeks 4-18, Tagovailoa eclipsed 20 fantasy points just two more times. Over that span, he averaged 15.3 fantasy points per game. Those are barely fantasy QB2 numbers.
The fascinating part is that he had one of the best deep balls in the league. Tua’s 8.3 yards per attempt was good for second. He was already incredibly accurate in all phases of the game (deep ball, red zone, pressure, play-action).
The Dolphins did run for 27 of their touchdowns, while Tagovailoa threw for 29 himself. It wasn’t like he had a bad year. It’s just very difficult for a quarterback to be a fantasy QB1 without any rushing.
In the modern NFL, most quarterbacks have a baseline of mobility. Tagovailoa started every game last season and totaled 74 rushing yards. For a quarterback that stationary to achieve QB1 numbers, he’s going to have to throw for several touchdowns.
Even if Tagovailoa threw for 40, along with a very impressive 4,624 passing yards, he still would’ve averaged just 19.3 points per game. I say “just” because you would think a 4,500-yard, 40-touchdown passer would be better than a mid-QB1. But that’s just not the case anymore.
Tagovailoa’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Tagovailoa land in the dynasty QB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Tagovailoa lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Jason Katz’s Top 40 QB Rankings
1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Josh Allen | BUF
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI
4) Lamar Jackson | BAL
5) Joe Burrow | CIN
6) C.J. Stroud | HOU
7) Justin Herbert | LAC
8) Dak Prescott | DAL
9) Anthony Richardson | IND
10) Kyler Murray | ARI
11) Brock Purdy | SF
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
13) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
14) Justin Fields | CHI
15) Jordan Love | GB
16) Jared Goff | DET
17) Bryce Young | CAR
18) Kirk Cousins | MIN
19) Matthew Stafford | LAR
20) Deshaun Watson | CLE
21) Will Levis | TEN
22) Geno Smith | SEA
23) Baker Mayfield | TB
24) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ
25) Derek Carr | NO
26) Daniel Jones | NYG
27) Russell Wilson | DEN
28) Jake Browning | CIN
29) Gardner Minshew II | IND
30) Joe Flacco | CLE
31) Kenny Pickett | PIT
32) Sam Howell | WAS
33) Aidan O’Connell | LV
34) Jimmy Garoppolo | LV
35) Ryan Tannehill | TEN
36) Trey Lance | DAL
37) Mason Rudolph | PIT
38) Jacoby Brissett | WAS
39) Zach Wilson | NYJ
40) Hendon Hooker | DET
Should You Trade Tagovailoa in Dynasty?
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Tua certainly has 40-touchdown upside. The offensive scheme he’s in is excellent, and he has some of the best weapons in the league. It’s just not realistic to expect it to happen.
More often than not, Tagovailoa will be in the 30-35 TD range. That will likely be the majority of his seasons, but simply put, that’s not good enough for fantasy.
In dynasty leagues, I’m very reluctant to recommend managers trade away their quarterback when they’ve found a guy who can be the answer for the next decade. Unfortunately, after four seasons, I believe Tagovailoa has proven he’s not that guy. He’s the answer for the Dolphins, but not your fantasy team.
So, what could you get for Tua in a trade? In a 1QB league, not much. Only the top 12 quarterbacks, plus the rookies with unknown, but very high ceilings, generate any real value.
An established veteran like Tagovailoa who looks like a low QB1, at best, is just not a desirable asset. However, he’s still just 26 years old. Health permitting, he’s the type of guy who can remain a starter for a long time.
MORE: Dynasty Fantasy Football Trade Value Chart
You can certainly do worse than Tua. Thus, the best course of action is to hang onto him as a safety net, while actively searching for an upgrade.
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