Tua Tagovailoa in 2023 was the perfect example of Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. He started 2023 on fire but, unfortunately, cooled off significantly in the second half.
The good news is after a scary concussion-filled 2022, Tagovailoa stayed concussion-free in 23. Tagovailoa gets to line up under center in a potent offense with multiple weapons surrounding him, creating all types of “cheat” motion at the line of scrimmage.
The issue for Tagovailoa has been putting together 17 games of consistent QB1 production for our fantasy football team. Let’s break down his fantasy outlook in 2024.
Tua Tagovailoa’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 Season
As we said earlier, Tagovailoa started the season on fire in 2023. For the first eight weeks, TruMedia Tua was the top-ranked quarterback in the NFL in passer rating (PsrRt) with 108.8.
Tagovailoa produced the sixth-highest TD/Int ratio (2.6) while throwing a league-leading 18 passing touchdowns, which was only tied by Kirk Cousins.
The issue was the rest of the season. Tagovailoa’s PsrRt dropped to 93.7, the 12th best in the NFL. Tua’s TD/Int ratio plummeted, and he produced 1.6, which was 22nd overall in that timeframe.
With only throwing 11 touchdowns in that timeframe, Tua struggled to help fantasy teams reach and excel in their leagues’ playoffs.
For the entirety of last season, Tagovailoa threw 29 touchdowns, the fifth-most in the NFL. He also led the league in passing yards, so on paper, Tagovailoa can fool you into thinking he is a top-five option for your fantasy football draft.
Is Tua Tagovailoa a Good Fantasy Pick?
Drafting Tua is like looking for a needle in a haystack. A pocket passer with limited mobility can rarely give us an upside at the quarterback position. We recommend following the Konami Code draft strategy and targeting a mobile quarterback instead.
Please do not let the appeal of Tyreek Hill, Jaylen Waddle, Raheem Mostert, and De’von Achane trick you into thinking Tagovailoa is the way to access all of them.
In this scenario, you are better leaning into drafting the playmakers around the quarterback instead of the quarterback himself to achieve the ceiling plays from the Dolphins players you roster.
Tagovailoa does have a better position within the bye-week strategy, as the Dolphins will enjoy their week off in Week 6. The issue with Tua for this season is that he faces one of the most challenging strengths of schedules in the NFL for the 2024 season.
When watching Tagovailoa, we have to worry if we will see college Tua who threw with anticipation, had pinpoint accuracy, and carved up the blitz, or if we watch Tua under pressure with happy feet and ultimately looking like he is trying to survive the drive without a turnover.
Just like his days in Alabama, Tagovailoa is blessed with a plethora of playmakers who can help beef up his stats to look like a top-five quarterback. However, the boom/bust potential is risky when I can draft quarterbacks such as Trevor Lawrence, Kirk Cousins, or Matthew Stafford in a later round who can match Tagovailoa’s production.