As we close in toward the new season, the ever-changing NFL landscape has player fantasy values constantly on the move, with key events like free agency and the 2023 NFL Draft still to come. Whether you’re used to the dynasty platform or are still learning the rules, let’s dive into the latest dynasty fantasy football value of QB Tua Tagovailoa.
Tua Tagovailoa’s Dynasty Outlook and Value
2022 was a de facto prove-it year for Tagovailoa. The narratives swirled by fans, media, and in the fantasy realm questioning if Tua could be “the guy” and stay healthy.
Miami went all in to place Tua in the best situation possible. They brought in Mike McDaniel as head coach, and while there were some moments where his inexperience showed, the change in the scheme made Miami a deadly threat, especially with the combination of Jaylen Waddle and Tyreek Hill.
But was it a success for Tua? For me, this is a yes and no. For one, Tagovailoa, when on the field and in tempo, was great. His highs were what we had expected. Tua took advantage of the new offense, which capitalized on what he does well.
From a per-game basis, Tagovailoa was fifth in yards (272.9) and 11th in points per game (18.4 PPR). Additionally, he was second in EPA+CPOE and air yards per attempt (9.7) and carried a 3.1:1 TD-to-INT ratio.
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However, it’s just not that simple. Although he found success on the field, Tua’s injury concerns have gone nowhere. If anything, they’re more prevalent now due to the highly publicized and noted concussions he dealt with last year.
While he had two confirmed, it feels unquestionable that Tagovailoa had at least three. Due to the missed games, Tua was 15th in fantasy on the year, as he played in just 13 contests.
Unfortunately, he’s not over it, either. Not only was Tagovailoa unable to play in the final two weeks of the regular season, but he also missed the Wild Card playoff game and was removed from the Pro Bowl roster as he has yet to be cleared from concussion protocol. That’s a major piece of news many might not be aware of, and it raises legitimate questions about Tua’s future.
Even if we remove the games where he left due to injury, Tua was a QB1 in only 54.5% of his outings. But even in the games he was a QB2, his average of 17.35 PPR won’t ever hurt you in a given week. Yet, despite a clear improvement in 2022, Tagovailoa has not increased his value.
Tua Tagovailoa’s Fantasy Ranking
Actually, he’s dropped. He’s in the middle of Tier 3 and has been passed by Trevor Lawrence and Justin Fields positionally, and remains behind Justin Herbert and Lamar Jackson as the QB11 in dynasty.
That’s also before we add Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud. The only player Tagovailoa jumped was Kyler Murray, but that is more to do with Murray and his ACL than Tua. In Superflex formats, where quarterbacks see an increase in value, Tagovailoa is the No. 28 overall ranked player.
Tua is a hold for me unless you can flip him for someone in his tier like Fields or Lawrence. I’d take that in a heartbeat, but I don’t feel you need to rush out and sell Tua. He’s young, in the best environment of his career, and has a ton of upside. But he’s certainly not as safe as some want him to be for dynasty.
Although, Miami picking up his fifth-year option certainly did ease the minds of some managers as the Dolphins clearly want to make this work with him.