Miami Dolphins QB Tua Tagovailoa was the architect behind one of the most prolific offenses in the league. Yet, this did not translate into him becoming a weekly fantasy football option. Is Tagovailoa worth his cost in Best Ball drafts?
Tua Tagovailoa’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
After the first three weeks of the season, it sure looked like Tagovailoa and the Dolphins’ high-powered offense would be a team on which you wanted a bunch of fantasy assets, including, but not limited to, the quarterback.
Tagovailoa opened the season with games of 28.1, 13.3, and 28.4 fantasy points, respectively. That elite upside had fantasy managers who took a shot on Tagovailoa late salivating.
Unfortunately, the good times would not continue. For the rest of the season, Tagovailoa recorded just two games over 20 fantasy points while posting seven games under 15. He averaged 16.7 fantasy points per game on the season, finishing as the overall QB16.
Tua Tagovailoa with a 💣 to Jaylen Waddle 🔥#FinsUp | #NFLpic.twitter.com/gM6AJPNgoU
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) December 17, 2023
It’s worth considering that Tagovailoa averaged 18.4 fantasy points per game the year before, finishing as the overall QB9. That upside certainly exists. With a better year from Jaylen Waddle, and Tyreek Hill continuing to do Tyreek Hill things, Tagovailoa absolutely has the setup to post QB1 numbers once again.
In actuality, Tagovailoa really wasn’t notably worse last season. His completion percentage improved by 4.5 percentage points, while his yards per attempt only dropped 0.6.
The biggest culprit behind his decline as a fantasy asset was Raheem Mostert.
The veteran running back rushed for a whopping 18 touchdowns last season. In total, the Dolphins scored 27 of their 57 offensive touchdowns via the ground, compared to 2022, when just 12 of their 42 offensive touchdowns were rushing. As a reminder, Tagovailoa only really played in 12 games that year.
Something as simple as touchdown variance could easily propel Tagovailoa back into the top 12 fantasy quarterbacks.
Should You Draft Tagovailoa in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
Currently, Tagovailoa is going just outside of the ranks of the QB1s. It’s a fair price, placing him right between his 2022 and 2023 seasons.
The state of the quarterback position is fascinating right now. There are not enough starters to go around, but there are several options outside the top 12 that could easily finish as QB1s, Tagovailoa chief among them.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy QB Rankings 2024
Given where Hill and Waddle go in Best Ball drafts, it is very conceivable for you to draft a team stacking Tagovailoa with both of his receivers. If that falls into your lap, you should absolutely jump on the chance to do that. The upside is immense.
Otherwise, Tagovailoa is just as fine as any other options around him. If you can’t stack him with one of his pass catchers, then he’s only worth targeting if he’s the cheapest of the group of QBs with similar value and ADPs.
