A two-game slate on Thursday brings with it our Troy vs. South Alabama prediction and full betting preview. Two of the conference’s best teams are in action when these two meet. Each brings in a long winning streak and their place at the top of the Sun Belt West is on the line.
Troy vs. South Alabama Betting Preview
- Spread
South Alabama (-3) - Moneyline
South Alabama (-165); Troy (+140) - Over/Under
46 points - Game time
7:30 p.m. ET - Location
Hancock Whitney Stadium, Mobile, AL - Predicted weather at kickoff
59 degrees, clear, 4-5 mph winds - How to watch
FuboTV, ESPNU
Top DFS Picks and Fantasy Plays
As a reminder, FanDuel has multi-game and single-game selections for college football DFS on Thursday night. They give you $60,000 to construct your best daily lineup. A value entry from FanDuel here will also match your $1 entry with $10 dollars to play on Thursday night.
- QB Carter Bradley, South Alabama ($11,000)
- QB Jarret Doege, Troy ($8,000)
- QB Gunnar Watson, Troy ($8,000)
- RB La’Damian Webb, South Alabama ($9,700)
- RB DK Billingsley, Troy ($8,400)
- RB Marco Lee, South Alabama ($7,400)
- RB Kimani Vidal, Troy ($7,000)
- RB Omni Wells, South Alabama ($5,700)
- RB Braylon McReynolds, South Alabama ($5,000)
- RB Jamontez Woods, Troy ($4,800)
- RB Terrion Avery, South Alabama ($4,500)
- WR Caullin Lacy, South Alabama ($9,500)
- WR Tez Johnson, Troy ($9,000)
- WR Jalen Wayne, South Alabama ($8,300)
- WR Devin Voisin, South Alabama ($7,300)
- WR RaJae’ Johnson, Troy ($6,800)
- WR Deshon Stoudemire, Troy ($6,100)
- WR Devonte Ross, Troy ($5,300)
- WR Marcus Rogers, Troy ($5,100)
- TE Michael Vice, Troy ($5,000)
- TE Lincoln Sefcik, South Alabama ($4,900)
You may have heard that South Alabama’s offensive attack is very good. Yet, they have the Sun Belt’s fourth-ranked passing offense by yards per game and rank behind the expected Sun Belt offenses like Georgia Southern, James Madison, and … Troy.
That’s right, the Trojans have the Sun Belt’s second-best passing offense by purely yards per game. Gunnar Watson and Jarret Doege have emerged as quite the duo, even if they can’t figure out who the starter is.
Watson handles the lion’s share of the snaps, throwing for over 1,600 yards and six touchdowns. Doege, the experienced veteran, has thrown for five touchdowns on a third of the attempts. It appears Watson will start in this game against South Alabama, but because of the dual-quarterback situation, you’d be best to find value elsewhere on their roster than play one of them in your DFS lineup.
Tez Johnson is the easiest go-to because of his all-around ability, but Deshon Stoudemire is actually the best play of the midweek slate. Grab Stoudemire in each lineup you have, as he leads the Trojans in targets and has had a few unlucky bounces go his way this season. Otherwise, he’d be the team’s leading receiver in both yards and touchdowns.
For the Jaguars’ pass catchers, Jalen Wayne is receiving surprisingly low value from FanDuel. He’s the most targeted receiver in this outing by far and leads both teams with five scores. Wayne is featured as the focal point of the passing attack and has secured at least eight passes in four of his last five games.
On the ground, Marlo Lee has hawked La’Damian Webb’s red-zone carries to the tune of four scores to Webb’s six touchdowns. Still, Webb is the bell cow and should once again contribute in the passing game (fourth on the team in targets).
Troy splits their carries to an even split between Kimani Vidal and DK Billingsley, as each has 77 carries this season. Billingsley has been the more efficient rusher, but Vidal contributes much more in the receiving game (20 targets for Vidal compared to just two for Billingsley). If you grab one of those two, go with Vidal for his higher ceiling.
Complete the South Alabama trifecta for your best interests by securing QB Carter Bradley. Select Bradley, Webb, and Wayne and hope for the best from this law firm of a lineup.
Prediction for Troy vs. South Alabama
If it weren’t for a boneheaded fake field goal from South Alabama, the Jaguars would have been 6-0 entering this contest against Troy. Similarly, Troy was a mere play or two away from upsetting App State earlier in the season as well.
As it stands now, first place in the Sun Belt West Division is on the line. The right to control their own destiny towards the Sun Belt Championship Game will present itself to the winner. But who has the advantage in a particularly close Thursday night matchup?
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In what is more of a pick-’em-type game, South Alabama’s home-field advantage is contributing to their (-3) line. This game is as close as you can slice it.
Just take a look at the national and conference team rankings in each major category:
Passing offense:
Troy – 312.7 yards per game (17th nationally, third Sun Belt)
South Alabama – 297.5 yards (23rd, fourth)
Passing defense:
South Alabama – 228.8 yards allowed per game (66th, fourth)
Troy – 229.7 (67th, 5th)
Rushing offense:
South Alabama – 164.8 yards per game (59th nationally, fifth Sun Belt)
Troy – 86.7 yards per game (125th, 14th)
Rushing defense:
South Alabama – 95.2 yards allowed per game (12th nationally, third Sun Belt)
Troy – 111.3 (25th, fourth)
The biggest discrepancy is that Troy, who already doesn’t run the ball well, will have difficulty rushing it on the Jaguars’ defense. That falls in line with one major deficiency: Troy’s play-action passing attack.
The Trojans have built up great success on play-action passes as Watson has thrown five of his six touchdowns after a play fake this year. Troy uses a between-the-tackles approach with their backs and lulls defenses to sleep to hit a few deep shots over the middle after the safeties and linebackers cheat up.
Against South Alabama, that won’t fly. Broyles Award nominee Corey Batoon coaches the veteran defensive unit. The Jags’ defense allowed the fewest yards in program history during Batoon’s first season last year and are set to improve on that this year.
The Jaguars win a close one that allows you to grab the under in total points.
Prediction: South Alabama 24, Troy 20