With the news that Indianapolis Colts running back Jonathan Taylor will be out with an ankle injury, the door is open for either Trey Sermon or Tyler Goodson to step forward and get plenty of work this week vs. the Jacksonville Jaguars.
But which running back should fantasy football managers look to pick? Here’s a look at the fantasy outlook for each Colts’ running back.
Should You Start Trey Sermon or Tyler Goodson This Week?
In the Pro Football Network Start/Sit Optimizer, PFN’s consensus rankings say that Sermon is the player to start. His projected 11.5 fantasy points include 76 rushing yards, two receptions, and 11 receiving yards. That stat line outperforms the consensus for Goodson (7.2 points, 35 rushing yards, two receptions, and 14 receiving yards).
My ranking of these two running backs aligns with the consensus. Sermon is the only other RB besides Taylor to have a rush attempt this season, so it would seem natural for him to step into the role of the featured back for this week.
Sermon’s Week 5 Fantasy Outlook
On the surface, there isn’t much for fantasy managers to get excited about when it comes to Sermon. After all, he has just nine carries on the season and is averaging less than three yards per carry (2.7). In addition, Sermon has been targeted just once out of the backfield this season so far.
On the other hand, fantasy managers know that there are also reasons to be optimistic about Sermon’s role this week. For one, because of the Colts’ injury situation — not only is Taylor officially out, but starting quarterback Anthony Richardson (oblique) is questionable — Sermon’s workload could be heavy this week.
I asked #Colts RB Trey Sermon how prepared he is to potentially start Sunday, and before he could answer, Tyler Goodson chimed in:
“TELL THEM BOYS, TREY, WE READY!” 😂
Sermon: “I’m very prepared. Like Tyler said, we ready. We’re here for a reason. … We believe in ourselves …” pic.twitter.com/6fq4WLGnzw
— James Boyd (@RomeovilleKid) October 4, 2024
Prior to this season, albeit in limited work, Sermon proved that he could be a productive running back. The fourth-year veteran has a career average of 4.3 yards per carry and 4.4 yards per touch.
Following Taylor’s injury in the fourth quarter of last week’s win over the Pittsburgh Steelers, there was enough confidence in Sermon that he carried the ball on four straight offensive plays for Indianapolis.
It didn’t amount to much in yards. Sermon finished the game with eight yards on five carries. Yet, it demonstrated that the Colts are committed to the running game, no matter who is in the backfield.
Sermon hasn’t been very productive from a fantasy standpoint. He has 10.1 fantasy points for the season, although 7.6 of those points came in the win over the Chicago Bears in Week 3 when he had a touchdown run.
Despite being winless this season, the Jacksonville Jaguars do present some problems defensively. They are allowing less than four yards a carry (3.9), which ranks sixth in the NFL. However, Jacksonville has allowed five rushing touchdowns in its four games.
Goodson’s Week 5 Fantasy Outlook
In his second season, Goodson did show potential last season, averaging 6.7 ypc, albeit in just 13 total carries. He also demonstrated the ability to catch the ball out of the backfield, with six receptions in just six games in 2023.
The problem for Goodson this week is that there is no reason for fantasy managers to look at this season because he hasn’t been on the field. He’s been on the field for only 12 of the Colts’ offensive snaps thus far.
So while there is certainly potential with Goodson, it’s difficult to support a decision to go with him over Sermon in any fantasy lineups this week.
