It took a Zach Ertz injury, but Trey McBride was finally able to break out in his sophomore campaign last season. Now firmly established as a top fantasy football tight end, should managers be targeting the Arizona Cardinals pass catcher in drafts? What does McBride’s projection look like?
Trey McBride’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 13.0
- Receptions: 82
- Receiving Yards: 1,061
- Receiving TDs: 5.3
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft McBride This Year?
Purely looking at McBride’s total numbers, there’s nothing exciting about 10.7 fantasy points per game. That’s only slightly better than streaming. Of course, fantasy football isn’t a linear game.
McBride averaged a sub-50% snap share for the first seven weeks of the season. In Week 8, though, everything changed.
McBride had his breakout game, catching 10 passes for 95 yards and a touchdown, posting 25.5 fantasy points. Although he followed that up with another dud, there was no putting the genie back in the bottle. The Cardinals’ starting tight end job was now McBride’s.
From Week 8 through the remainder of the season, McBride averaged 15.0 fantasy points per game and was the overall TE4 during that timeframe. That impressive stretch also included four games of 20+ fantasy points. Not many tight ends even have the potential to provide one game over 20.
Despite the early season lack of usage, McBride led all tight ends with a 26.1% targets-per-route-run rate and was second with 2.03 yards per route run. It should also be no coincidence that he averaged 14.8 points per game with Kyler Murray against 7.0 without him.
While this information is useful, it’s also not exactly a secret. McBride’s TE4 ADP indicates that the fantasy community is well aware that his performance without Murray should be completely discarded. McBride is being valued as if the version of him who played with Murray will be the one we get for the entire season.
My projections agree to an extent. I have McBride catching 88 receptions for 927 yards and 5.9 touchdowns, giving him a 12.74 ppg average. In my projections, he lands as the TE6.
Since projections are not rankings, and there’s a cluster of four tight ends very close to each other, I feel comfortable adjusting McBride’s rankings for external factors, mostly with the other tight ends, ranking him as the TE4.
I really like how McBride is set up to produce this season. Marvin Harrison Jr. is locked in as Arizona’s top option, but McBride is the overwhelming favorite to be second in targets. If we can’t get a tight end who projects to be his team’s top pass catcher, the next best thing is a guy who should be second — that’s McBride.
The issue with drafting McBride this season is I am super high on Mark Andrews. As long as Andrews continues to go behind McBride, I can’t justify taking the latter over the former.
By no means is McBride a bad pick. We saw him produce high-WR2 numbers from the TE position over an extended period of time. He’ll be just 25 years old midway through this season and is a player who is only getting better. There is absolutely a world where McBride is a top-three tight end who averages over 15 ppg.
Derek Tate’s Analysis of McBride’s Fantasy Value
- Impressive 2023 Season: McBride finished the 2023 season as the TE7 with 81 receptions for 825 yards and three touchdowns. His performance after Zach Ertz went on IR in Week 7 was particularly impressive, with McBride ranking as the TE4 overall from that point forward.
- Connection with Kyler Murray: When Kyler Murray returned in Week 10, McBride’s production soared. He averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game during that span, making him the TE3 on a fantasy-points-per-game basis. His per-game averages project to 102 receptions and 1,139 yards over a full season, placing him firmly in the TE1 conversation.
- Impact of Marvin Harrison Jr.: The addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., a generational WR talent, could slightly reduce McBride’s target volume in 2024. Harrison is expected to command a significant target share, which may limit McBride’s opportunities compared to last season.
- Slot Usage and Efficiency: McBride excelled in the slot last season, where he saw 276 snaps, ranking 10th at the TE position. His yards-per-route-run (2.03) and yards-after-catch (439) both ranked inside the top five, demonstrating his efficiency when targeted.
- ADP Analysis: McBride’s current ADP of No. 48 overall as the TE4 is a reflection of his strong finish to 2023. However, with the arrival of Harrison and the competition for targets, drafting McBride ahead of proven options like Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, and Evan Engram in the fourth round might be too risky.
- Final Verdict: While McBride has shown the potential to be a top-tier fantasy TE, the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. and the high price point at his current ADP make him a more volatile pick. He still offers upside, but it’s important to weigh that against the cost of selecting him so early in drafts.
