Did fantasy football managers get a preview of the fantasy excellence we can expect from Arizona Cardinals TE Trey McBride in the future? Or will McBride prove to be a flash in the pan who capitalized on an expanded role in the passing game due to an injury-depleted and talent-deprived receiver room in 2023?
This is the exact question fantasy managers are asking themselves after McBride’s mini-breakout in the second half of last season: Can he duplicate his production in 2024?
Should You Select Trey McBride at His Current ADP?
PPR Industry Consensus ADP: 48th Overall (TE4)
- Impressive 2023 Season: McBride finished the 2023 season as the TE7 with 81 receptions for 825 yards and three touchdowns. His performance after Zach Ertz went on IR in Week 7 was particularly impressive, with McBride ranking as the TE4 overall from that point forward.
- Connection with Kyler Murray: When Kyler Murray returned in Week 10, McBride’s production soared. He averaged 14.9 fantasy points per game during that span, making him the TE3 on a fantasy-points-per-game basis. His per-game averages project to 102 receptions and 1,139 yards over a full season, placing him firmly in the TE1 conversation.
- Impact of Marvin Harrison Jr.: The addition of Marvin Harrison Jr., a generational WR talent, could slightly reduce McBride’s target volume in 2024. Harrison is expected to command a significant target share, which may limit McBride’s opportunities compared to last season.
- Slot Usage and Efficiency: McBride excelled in the slot last season, where he saw 276 snaps, ranking 10th at the TE position. His yards-per-route-run (2.03) and yards-after-catch (439) both ranked inside the top five, demonstrating his efficiency when targeted.
- ADP Analysis: McBride’s current ADP of No. 48 overall as the TE4 is a reflection of his strong finish to 2023. However, with the arrival of Harrison and the competition for targets, drafting McBride ahead of proven options like Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, and Evan Engram in the fourth round might be too risky.
- Final Verdict: While McBride has shown the potential to be a top-tier fantasy TE, the addition of Marvin Harrison Jr. and the high price point at his current ADP make him a more volatile pick. He still offers upside, but it’s important to weigh that against the cost of selecting him so early in drafts.
PFN Consensus PPR Fantasy Ranking for Trey McBride
Note that these rankings are the PFN Consensus Rankings and may not fully match my analysis.
49) Zay Flowers, WR | Baltimore Ravens
50) Tee Higgins, WR | Cincinnati Bengals
51) D’Andre Swift, RB | Chicago Bears
52) Malik Nabers, WR | New York Giants
53) Stefon Diggs, WR | Houston Texans
54) Trey McBride, TE | Arizona Cardinals
55) DK Metcalf, WR | Seattle Seahawks
56) Terry McLaurin, WR | Washington Commanders
57) Rashee Rice, WR | Kansas City Chiefs
58) Zamir White, RB | Las Vegas Raiders
59) Christian Kirk, WR | Jacksonville Jaguars
Trey McBride’s Fantasy Profile for the 2024 NFL Season
On the surface, McBride’s finish of TE7 with 81 receptions for 825 yards and three touchdowns in his second NFL season is enough to project him into top-five TE territory in 2024 alone. Yet, when you take a closer look at McBride’s entire production profile from last year, it may be enough for him to enter the TE1 overall conversation in full-PPR formats.
After Zach Ertz went to injured reserve (IR) in Week 7, McBride’s role expanded to that of the featured player of the Cardinals’ passing attack. From the moment Ertz essentially played the final snap of his Arizona tenure, McBride was the TE4 overall, with an average of 14.1 fantasy points per game.
If we want to truly magnify what he did when franchise quarterback Kyler Murray was under center, then we have to filter those results by when the dynamic signal-caller returned to the starting lineup in Week 10.
Unsurprisingly, the numbers look equally impressive, with McBride checking in as the TE3 on a fantasy-points-per-game basis (14.9) during that span, while working with the Cardinals’ franchise QB.
Furthermore, with Murray under center, McBride averaged eight targets, six receptions, and 67 receiving yards per game. If you project those per-game averages for a 17-game season, we’re potentially looking at 102 receptions for 1,139 receiving yards on 136 targets.
That would certainly be in the mix for the TE1 conversation, regardless of his touchdown output.
Here comes the bad news. Arizona selected a generational talent in Ohio State WR Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 4 overall in the 2024 NFL Draft.
Harrison projects as an alpha target-earning WR who could have a Justin Jefferson or Ja’Marr Chase-type fantasy impact as a rookie with his exceptional physical profile, elite catch radius, route-running nuance, diverse release package, and bully-ball-type dominance at the catch point.
It’s not out of the range of outcomes for Harrison to see a similar target share to DeAndre Hopkins’ 2020 campaign with Murray — 115 receptions for 1,407 yards and six scores on 160 targets. Yes, Harrison is that good.
Unfortunately, I do believe Harrison’s addition will slightly eat into McBride’s overall volume in the passing game this season.
Last year, McBride battled a hobbled Hollywood Brown, a rookie Michael Wilson, and Greg Dortch for the quarterback’s attention. I don’t mean to offend the other pass catchers just mentioned, but none of them demand the type of target share Harrison is projected to see early in his career.
That being said, Harrison projects as an outside X-receiver, which isn’t really where McBride operates. Actually, McBride does some really nice work out of the slot, where he just so happened to see 276 snaps last year, which ranked 10th at the position.
This is a prudent time to remind you he was still working in tandem with Ertz through the first month of the season, which means that number could swell even higher in 2024.
McBride’s yards-per-route-run (2.03) and yards-after-catch (439) production both ranked inside the top five at the position, which means he was a very productive player when he got his opportunities last year.
Sure, Harrison is my betting favorite to lead the team in targets this season. Yet, McBride projects as a high-quality second option in this passing attack, which still gives him an exciting fantasy ceiling in 2024.
Is McBride a Good Value in Fantasy Drafts?
The excellent production we saw from McBride over the back half of the 2023 NFL season certainly has fantasy managers excited, evidenced by his current ADP (No. 48 overall as the TE4 off the board).
It’s wild to say out loud that McBride is only being drafted behind Sam LaPorta, Mark Andrews, and Travis Kelce at this time, but that’s how exciting his numbers were in full-PPR formats after Ertz was removed from Arizona’s offense.
Unfortunately, Harrison’s arrival means I can’t project the same healthy target share McBride saw when Murray returned last season. This makes drafting the third-year tight end in the fourth round ahead of Mark Andrews, Dalton Kincaid, and Evan Engram a bit too expensive for me.