Touchdowns have been a problem (four in 33 games), but the dynasty outlook for Arizona Cardinals TE Trey McBride is about as optimistic as any at the tight end position, given the ability to excel as a target earner that he proved in the second half of 2023. Understanding that scoring numbers aren’t always stable year-over-year, now could be the time to buy before a spike season in that department elevates his price in a significant way.
As we gradually shift from the elder elite TE tier for fantasy football, the next group of young players seems ready to carry the torch. Where does McBride fall within this tier, and can you count on him as a building block for years to come?
Trey McBride’s Dynasty Outlook
For young players, pedigree is a big part of the analysis, and McBride isn’t short on that. He was the first unanimous All-American in the history of Colorado State University and is the all-time leader at his high school in home runs and runs batted in on the baseball field, plus points scored on the basketball court.
Trey McBride is a BEAST 😤😤
Would you rather have #Lions Sam LaPorta or #Cardinals Trey McBride in fantasy football next year? 🤔
(Via @nfl) pic.twitter.com/UHsWk3l4ed
— PFN Fantasy (@PFNFantasy) January 24, 2024
Yes, it’s safe to say that the athletic profile is as real as it gets. And McBride showing us the ability to earn targets in 2023 is a path to him being considered among the best in our game as early as 2024.
The first rule of dynasty is to not overreact to a small sample. The sample size is great when you have the opportunity to use it at the professional level, but for young players like McBride, we simply don’t have that.
Instead, we have to mold together his track record coming into the NFL with what we’ve seen him do on Sundays. It’s not an exact science, and that is what results in varying opinions, thus opening you up in the trade market.
Well, we know McBride has the former in spades, and he very much proved to us the latter in 2023. From Weeks 8-18, here is the full list of players with at least 65 receptions who were targeted on at least 25% of their routes –- the consistent target earners that excelled in the volume department.
- CeeDee Lamb: 101 catches (32.4% target rate)
- Amon-Ra St. Brown: 68 catches (27.4% target rate)
- Michael Pittman Jr.: 67 catches (31.4% target rate)
- Tyreek Hill: 66 catches (35.4% target rate)
- Trey McBride: 66 catches (27.1% target rate)
The company McBride is keeping on this list, even if not over a huge number of games, is ludicrous. It’s borderline impossible to overrate him moving forward, given the state of the position –- he’s a Tier 1 dynasty TE for me, and it’s not debatable.
Where exactly you want to place him within that tier is a personal preference.
McBride’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does McBride land in the dynasty TE landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Tate’s latest rankings, featuring where McBride lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
1) Sam LaPorta | DET
2) Trey McBride | ARI
3) George Kittle | SF
4) Mark Andrews | BAL
5) T.J. Hockenson | MIN
6) Evan Engram | JAX
7) Travis Kelce | KC
8) Jake Ferguson | DAL
9) Dalton Kincaid | BUF
10) Kyle Pitts | ATL
11) David Njoku | CLE
12) Dallas Goedert | PHI
13) Michael Mayer | LV
14) Dalton Schultz | HOU
15) Isaiah Likely | BAL
Should You Trade McBride in Dynasty?
The situation around McBride isn’t the clearest, and that’s why he sits just behind LaPorta in my rankings. There have been some rumblings about Kyler Murray’s future with the team (not a free agent until 2029).
Additionally, Marquise Brown enters this offseason as an unrestricted free agent, leaving this roster void of a complementary playmaker. In comparing him to LaPorta, those are question marks that don’t exist in Detroit.
- Murray to McBride, 2023: 80.3% and 8.2 YPA
- Murray to everyone else: 62.8% and 6.4 YPA
That said, if we assume that Murray is back, we have no choice but to be all in on McBride.
The Cardinals identify McBride as a receiver stuck in a tight end’s body (26.9 routes run for every pass-blocking snap), and that’s all we can ask for from a fantasy perspective — his role in “real” life and his role for us is the same, and that is to help move the chains.
I would have no hesitation in trading for McBride right now, assuming that you have the TE position figured out for the next 5-7 years. If the manager with him isn’t fully sold after 2023, you must make an offer and see where the conversation goes.
KEEP READING: Dynasty Fantasy Football Startup Draft Strategies
I tend not to build my dynasty rosters around one-off positions, but McBride lines up as a potential exception to that rule, and that is a good reminder — the only rule you should have in building a winner is to consider all angles and commit to no rule as gospel.
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