Arizona Cardinals TE Trey McBride followed up an unimpactful rookie season with a breakout sophomore campaign. Firmly locked in as the team’s every-down tight end, is McBride worthy of his lofty price tag in 2024 Best Ball drafts? Should fantasy football managers target him?
Trey McBride’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
Overall, McBride’s 2023 season was wholly unimpressive. He averaged 10.7 fantasy points per game. That is as replacement-level as it gets…on the surface. When we dig a bit deeper, there are signs McBride might be a perennial top-five tight end.
From Weeks 1-7, McBride averaged a snap share below 50%. He scored more than 6.0 fantasy points just once over that span and didn’t find the end zone. There was no reason to even roster him in fantasy leagues.
In Week 8, though, everything changed. McBride had his breakout game, catching 10 passes for 95 yards and a touchdown, posting 25.5 fantasy points. Although he followed that up with another dud, there was no putting the genie back in the bottle. The Cardinals’ starting tight end job was now McBride’s.
From Week 8 onward, McBride averaged 15.0 fantasy points per game and was the overall TE4 over that span. That stretch included four games of 20+ fantasy points. Not bad for a late-round dart throw in Best Ball drafts.
Despite the early season lack of usage, McBride led all tight ends with a 26.1% targets per route run rate and was second with 2.03 yards per route run. It should also be no coincidence that he averaged 14.8 points per game with Kyler Murray against 7.0 points per game without him.
Widely considered the best TE prospect of the 2022 class, McBride’s breakout shouldn’t be a surprise. We frequently see tight ends take big steps forward in their sophomore seasons, and there’s every reason to believe McBride is here to stay.
Should You Draft McBride in 2024 Best Ball Leagues?
I wrote McBride’s Best Ball outlook right after writing up Mark Andrews. I bring this up because one of the more surprising things in early ADP data is that McBride is being drafted ahead of Andrews.
As with any player, it doesn’t only matter if the player is good at football. Of course, we should all want McBride on our fantasy rosters. But if he cost a first-round pick, no one would advocate drafting him.
McBride’s second half of the 2023 season was objectively excellent. Yet, it still feels as though a price tag around the 4/5 turn is a bit expensive. I’m not quite sure I can justify him over Andrews.
Having a full season of Murray will help. But McBride greatly benefited from being the clear second option in the passing game behind Marquise Brown. if the Cardinals draft Marvin Harrison Jr., that’s a whole lot of targets that can’t go to McBride. If they bring back Brown, too, then McBride’s price would have to drop for him to be worth it.
KEEP READING: Best Ball Fantasy TE Rankings 2024
Given what McBride currently costs in Best Ball drafts, I don’t see much value in taking him. It’s hard to see a scenario where his ADP goes up.
Worst-case scenario, if you want some McBride, you can wait until after free agency and the NFL Draft. If the Cardinals end up with neither Harrison nor Brown, I still don’t expect McBride to get more expensive. But if they have one or both of them (or really just Harrison), his price should drop, which could turn him into a value.
