Trey Lance has had quite a tumultuous start to his NFL career. The San Francisco 49ers traded three first-round picks and a third-round pick to move from No. 12 overall to the third pick, and many speculated that move was for Alabama quarterback Mac Jones. But Kyle Shanahan and company shocked many draft pundits and bet their future on Lance instead.
Fast forward to Trey Lance’s second season. After sitting for the entirety of his rookie campaign, Lance took the reins, and his tenure as the 49ers’ starter began. But in only his second start, the sophomore quarterback fractured his right ankle and missed the remainder of the season.
Comparing Trey Lance and This Year’s NFL QB Class
We know how the rest of the story played out for the 49ers in 2022. Jimmy Garoppolo, once again, took over as the starter until he broke his left foot and was placed on injured reserve. Then, Brock Purdy, a seventh-round rookie, was thrown into action and never looked back, leading San Francisco to the NFC Championship Game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Purdy, however, tore his UCL during that game and is currently unsure if he’ll be able to play in 2023.
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Even with Purdy’s uncertainty, NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport tweeted that the 49ers had “received inquiries from several teams” about Lance.
The Texans, Titans, and Vikings have all been connected to rookie quarterbacks in the 2023 Draft and now may be in the race for Lance. Pro Football Talk’s Mike Florio reported that Minnesota and San Francisco talked about a potential Lance trade during the 2023 NFL Scouting Combine.
How does Lance stack up against top quarterbacks in this year’s draft class? And would a team take a chance on him over some of the 2023 quarterback prospects?
Trey Lance Still Younger Than Some 2023 Rookie QBs
When it comes to comparing Lance to the top quarterback prospects in this year’s class, it may be most important to think about age. Lance will turn just 23 years old in May. Will Levis, on the other hand, will be a 24-year-old rookie, while Hendon Hooker is already 25.
So in terms of development, Lance has two years of learning an NFL offense under his belt while still having a year or two of extra physical development compared to Levis and Hooker.
Lance tends to favor more of an Anthony Richardson-like style of play. He can throw it with the best of them or break a long touchdown run on an option read.
Coming out of North Dakota State, Lance was touted as a “complete physical package… As a runner, carries a lot of momentum and physicality, and he can explode upfield if given space.”
Lance has solid arm strength but doesn’t quite have the howitzer of Richardson. And while Lance did not run the 40-yard dash at his pro day in 2021, it’s unlikely that he could have matched Richardson’s 4.44.
Lance was not the most accurate QB coming out of NDSU, completing only 65.4% of his passes as a Bison. He then played in only two games in 2022, including one in a torrential downpour, and never really had the opportunity to show his development as a passer.
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Speaking as prospects, Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud certainly have more arm talent in terms of ball placement. Young and Stroud are both effortless passers who can make nearly any throw with impeccable timing and accuracy. Lance is, however, a more accurate quarterback than Levis, who has a tendency to frequently misfire or overthrow receivers.
If Lance were coming out in this draft class, he would arguably be the third or fourth quarterback off the board.
With top-notch talent on the defensive side of the ball, some teams in the top 15 may opt for one of those prospects over the riskier rookie QBs. Pairing one of them and taking a swing on Lance may be the safest option in the draft.
While it may take a strong offer to push the 49ers into dealing Lance, trading just an early Day 2 pick for someone with NFL tape would be hard to pass up.