Arizona Cardinals RB Trey Benson was a third-round pick in April after consecutive impressive seasons at Florida State. His path to work to open his career isn’t clear, with James Conner coming off of the first 1,000-yard season of his career, but the rookie could carve out a fantasy football role that puts him in position to explode should the veteran ahead of him miss time.
Trey Benson’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Total Fantasy Points: 139 (121 non-PPR)
- Rushing Yards: 607
- Rushing TDs: 6
- Receptions: 18
- Receiving Yards: 200
- Receiving TDs: 1
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 16. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Benson This Year?
I could tell you that I think Benson is overpriced right now as a 10th-round pick, but the fact of the matter is that a player like this is going to see his price fluctuate all over the place depending on your specific draft room.
Do your leaguemates prioritize immediate usage? If so, Benson won’t even be on radars until we get into the last few rounds. Do they operate with a long-term point of view once their starting lineup is filled? If so, Benson could go a round earlier than his ADP, with managers wanting raw talent in an offense that we all expect to take a big step forward in 2024.
— go to ➡️ collegefootballnetwork.com (@PickettsPool) November 26, 2023
Before deciding where you fall on Benson the player, you need to understand the situation he enters. There appears to be no competition for the bellcow role in Arizona entering the season. James Conner is coming off a strong season and looked spry by averaging a career-best 5.0 yards per carry.
You can preach the “age curve” all you want, but do you truly understand what you’re saying when you do so?
Over the past five seasons, average production based on expectation by age windows (minimum 150 carries in that season):
- Under 25 years old: +1.9%
- 25-26: +2.9%
- 27-28: +1.4%
- 29+: +3.8%
It’s rare to be featured at this point (only 11 backs are included on the tail of this age curve), but if a back is trusted enough with volume at this point in his career, he normally does well for himself — that is the current projection for Conner.
Of course, that’s a production curve. The adjustment for availability is where Benson moves up draft boards. Conner has missed multiple games in every season of his NFL career and has missed four games in each of the past two seasons.
Humans, forget running backs, don’t get healthier as they age. I don’t like to forecast injury, but it’s more likely than not that Benson will have his moments to show what he can do at the professional level at some point.
Is that worth a 10th-round pick for you? If you’re unfamiliar with Benson’s game, here is what Pro Football Network Draft Analyst Ian Cummings penned in his pre-draft report when it comes to what he does well:
- Hyper-dense back with a powerful, compact frame and a strong lower body.
- Flashes uncanny foot quickness and stride freedom for his size on corrective cuts.
- Has near-elite vertical speed and explosiveness for his size and can capitalize on holes.
- Can effortlessly absorb solo tacklers with his thick midsection while maintaining speed.
- Is extremely hard to slow in space with his urgent strides, mass, and constant leg drive.
I don’t doubt the profile, but I’m having a hard time investing a pick in the middle third of the draft for a player that, in my opinion, doesn’t have a path to standalone value outside of an injury.
Tyjae Spears, Chase Brown, and both running backs in the Cleveland Browns backfield are coming off the board in the same range as Benson. I don’t think it’s crazy to rank Arizona’s backup as a distant fourth in that group when it comes to proximity to a role that matters.
- Spears could outright win the lead role for the Tennessee Titans
- Brown could outright win the lead role for the Cincinnati Bengals
- Ford is likely to open the season as a featured back
- Chubb was a fantasy first-round pick 12 months ago
If you want to bet against Conner, just pass on him in the seventh round. If you’re wrong, no harm. If you’re right, you opened yourself up to potentially hitting big with that pick (Jaylen Warren, Zamir White, and Ladd McConkey are interesting players in that neighborhood).
I’m more open to that idea than burning a 10th-round pick on Benson and hoping that Conner gets banged up before you face a roster crunch and have to decide on keeping the rookie stashed.
Is he that much different than MarShawn Lloyd, Kimani Vidal, or Jaylen Wright, who you can get in the final few rounds? Vidal has a better shot at standalone value when everyone is at full strength while Lloyd/Wright are tethered to offenses that we know can be what we hope the Cardinals can be.
Benson is a fine player, but I need to see proof of concept when it comes to Father Time picking on Conner. Barring an August injury, I’ll wait and gamble on a rookie running back at the end of the draft as opposed to reaching for one in the middle third of the proceedings.