As the NFL season approaches, millions of people are turning their attention to fantasy football. We at PFN have been researching more than 350 players, trying to identify which ones are overrated, underrated, and priced right. With that in mind, here are Trevor Lawrence’s fantasy projections for 2023, as well as insights into whether he should be drafted at or before his ADP.
Get a trade offer in your dynasty or redraft league? Not sure who to start or sit this week? Leverage PFN’s FREE fantasy tools — the Fantasy Football Trade Analyzer and Calculator and Start/Sit Optimizer! Put the finishing touch on your A+ draft with 1 of our 425+ fantasy football team names.
Trevor Lawrence’s 2023 Fantasy Projection
It was only a matter of time before Lawrence found his NFL footing. Even some of the greats struggle early on. Peyton Manning led the league with 28 interceptions in his rookie campaign — at the time, tied for the 13th most in single-season QB history.
Likewise, Lawrence led the league with 17 interceptions in his rookie year. Poor coaching, the loss of rookie Travis Etienne Jr. in the preseason, and the loss of his top receiver in September were too much to overcome. And heading into his second season in 2022, Lawrence still looked like a work in progress.
Of course, his outlook changed pretty quickly, thanks in part to a new head coach, as well as an almost completely rebuilt receiving corps. He’s still raw and prone to errant throws, but Lawrence is well on his way to the greatness envisioned when the Jacksonville Jaguars drafted him No. 1 overall.
Now, entering Year 3, expectations are sky-high. And the addition of Calvin Ridley — once deemed the Falcons’ future long-term No. 1 WR — gives Jacksonville a real shot at making noise in the postseason.
Lawrence wasn’t a normal first-round pick. He wasn’t even a typical No. 1 pick. He was widely viewed as a generational talent coming out of Clemson. He could end his career as one of the greatest to ever play the game, and that’s not hyperbole.
So one should assume Lawrence is still getting better, and that his young playmakers also should take a collective step forward. Last year’s 4,113-25-8 passing numbers should be seen as a baseline, not as a ceiling. So should Lawrence’s 17.4 fantasy points per game, which placed him as the QB11.
A 4,600-34-9 line seems fairly realistic, along with continued work on the ground that might culminate in 250-275 yards and 3-4 scores. In other words, Lawrence’s third season might look similar to Joe Burrow’s last year.
Burrow is a more established fantasy name, but we shouldn’t jump to the conclusion that he’ll be better in 2023. As a result, Lawrence has sky-high upside with long-term elite potential. In his third season, we might see it all come together. More realistically, he’ll get much closer.
Should You Draft Trevor Lawrence This Year?
Underdog Fantasy currently lists Lawrence with an ADP of QB8. Our PFN Consensus Rankings have him in the same spot. Those are entirely reasonable projections for a rapidly developing QB in an ascending offense.
Ridley might be the wild card in all this. Lawrence had strong receivers last season, but the 32-year-old Marvin Jones Jr. frequently showed his age. And while Christian Kirk led the way as the team’s No. 1 wideout, he was frequently shut down by strong secondaries.
Ridley brings an element that was missing last year. At his best, he could be the missing piece to help push Jacksonville into the AFC title game.
Even a so-so Ridley would be a net upgrade. Combined with the rest of the corps — as well Etienne — Lawrence is a great bet to finish as a top-10 QB.
“Great bet” doesn’t mean he’s expected to finish ninth or 10th. It means he’s expected to finish anywhere from fourth to 10th. That’s a reasonable goal for a QB who, at times last year, looked like one of the best in the league, despite only turning 23 in October.
Draft Lawrence with relative confidence at his current ADP. His upside at that spot is greater than his downside.