As one of the most acclaimed rookies of the past decade, what is Trevor Lawrence’s fantasy football outlook and ADP in 2021? The Jacksonville Jaguars drafted Lawrence No. 1 overall in the 2021 NFL Draft. The former Clemson quarterback instantly became the face of the franchise. Lawrence will be under center in new head coach Urban Meyer’s offense that was especially friendly for quarterbacks in college. How will that translate to Lawrence’s rookie year?
Trevor Lawrence’s fantasy outlook for 2021
The buzz that Lawrence generated heading into this year’s draft was eerily similar to Andrew Luck back in 2012. The hype is warranted for the No. 1 overall recruit of the 2018 class.
Unparalleled statistical body of work
Lawrence enjoyed a phenomenal collegiate career at Clemson from 2018 to 2020, including a National Championship victory. He finished his career completing 66.6% of his passes for 10,098 yards and 90 touchdowns to 17 interceptions. His career passing yardage ranks third in Clemson history behind Tajh Boyd (11,904) and Deshaun Watson (10,163). Lawrence also finished fourth in completions (758) and second in passing touchdowns (90).
Additionally, the Tigers’ signal-caller rushed 231 times for 943 career rushing yards and 18 touchdowns. That is the fifth-most career rushing touchdowns by a Clemson quarterback in the modern era. Lawrence is the “perfect” prospect and should hit the ground running in Jacksonville.
Urban Meyer’s offense in Jacksonville
Lawrence is surrounded by an abundance of playmakers in D.J. Chark, Laviska Shenault, Marvin Jones, and James Robinson. The Jaguars’ offense is underrated heading into fantasy football drafts this summer.
Last season, Chark caught 53 of 93 targets for 706 receiving yards and 5 touchdowns. Still, he only finished as a WR2 or better in three games. Chark has averaged 28.5 deep targets of 20+ yards over the last two years. He now has the potential to exceed that season average with Lawrence under center.
Shenault’s diverse skill set as a receiver and runner and his yards-after-catch ability should be leveraged by Lawrence.
The generational first-round rookie quarterback will also have Jones to throw to. The fifth-round pick from the 2012 NFL Draft has only had one 1,000-yard season in his career. Yet, Jones has been a solid receiver whenever he’s on the field.
Offensive line continuity
Jacksonville kept last season’s starting offensive line together. The continuity will help this unit in 2021. The Jaguars’ offensive line is stronger at center and guard than at tackle. If the quality of play doesn’t improve this year, Lawrence should be concerned about pressure from the edge.
Will Lawrence’s success in college translate to the NFL? From a fantasy perspective, only seven quarterbacks have finished their rookie seasons as a top-12 fantasy QB since 2010. One common thread with many of those seven QBs is their rushing upside.
Fantasy projection
Lawrence projects for around 580 pass attempts, 4,100 passing yards, 24 touchdowns, and 12 interceptions in Year 1. Furthermore, he could see 60 attempts, 300 yards, and 3 more scores on the ground.
Lawrence can finish as a QB1, but a mid-range QB2 finish is more likely, given the offense many expect Meyer to run in Jacksonville.
Trevor Lawrence’s ADP
Lawrence has an ADP of 128 on Fleaflicker. He has an ADP of 130.7 in pay-to-play fantasy formats such as the National Fantasy Championship. Meanwhile, his ADP in PPR formats on Sleeper is 115.1.
Should you draft Lawrence in 2021?
Absolutely. Lawrence should be drafted as a QB2 with upside. The Jaguars are likely to be playing from behind in 2021, given the state of the defense.