The Year 2 fantasy football glow-up for Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence was real and spectacular. His completion percentage spiked to 66.3%, he doubled his pass TD total, cut his INT number by 53%, and scored five times on the ground. With the potential addition of a WR1, Lawrence’s future as a star seems bright.
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Trevor Lawrence’s Fantasy Outlook
Lawrence is entering his third season and is coming off a season in which he flashed the tools we knew he had to be a fantasy great. Not only did he post three games with at least 315 passing yards and three passing scores (the only QBs with more such games in one of their first two seasons over the past 20 years are Patrick Mahomes and Justin Herbert), but he had seven games with a 10-plus yard carry.
Lawrence is not on the shortlist for the most athletic quarterbacks in the game, but he’s certainly mobile enough to pay the fantasy bills much the way peak Aaron Rodgers was able to do. Special.
You may have heard … the Jags will have an active Calvin Ridley this season to bolster a receiver room that saw both Christian Kirk and Zay Jones thrive last year. Ridley is coming off a gambling suspension, but he’s still just 28 years old and has shown the ability to succeed at a high level (10 touchdowns as a rookie and an impressive 90-1,374-9 season in 2020, his last full NFL season).
Ridley’s addition has the potential to make this offense one of the strongest in the league, especially when considering their running game. Despite averaging 5.1 yards per carry as a rookie, Travis Etienne Jr.’s role in the passing game was underwhelming with only 35 catches in 17 games, despite it being a highlighted skill during the draft process. However, he clearly has the potential to grow and with the addition of Tank Bigsby in the third round, this is an explosive offensive unit that has yet to be fully recognized based on early ADPs.
What Does Calvin Ridley’s Addition Mean for Lawrence’s Value?
In short, it elevates his floor. Lawrence showed significant growth in Year 2, and that was with his top threat being a slot-oriented Kirk. Kirk is a legitimate option and that worked a season ago, but the ability to have a game-breaker to complement what he does well has the potential to take this offense up a level or two.
Lawrence ranked 22nd in aDOT a season ago, with names like Ryan Tannehill and Davis Mills posting more aggressive numbers. He made it work, but if Lawrence is going to explore his fantasy ceiling, that number needs to jump in a major way. With a high-point receiver like Ridley, why wouldn’t we expect it to in 2023?
MORE: 2023 Fantasy Football Player Projections
We know Lawrence has a connection with Kirk and Evan Engram (career-high 73 catches last season) … that’s not going to change. Both of them can retain similar roles and do it with less defensive attention.
Ridley demands plenty of eyes. From Week 11 on, the Jaguars were a top-eight offense in yards per play, percentage of yards gained through the air, and points per game. Numbers that I believe are obtainable for the entirety of the 2023 season!
Should Fantasy Managers Draft Lawrence at His ADP?
Yes, please! You’re getting a 2+ round discount from Joe Burrow, and there’s a real chance they post similar stat lines. When looking at players drafted in this range, planning your draft strategy around Lawrence makes even more sense. With your Round 5-6 picks, you could lock in Lawrence, or you could …
- Take a chance on Dameon Pierce with competition and offensive issues.
- Beg for J.K. Dobbins to stay full healthy and assume a featured role.
- Cross your fingers on Alexander Mattison being the guy in Minnesota.
I could go on and on. This range is filled with Flex player question marks, and that makes it the perfect time to buy in on a QB with this sort of upside.
Let’s circle back to the Burrow thing. For similar draft capital, you could land Joe Cool and a question mark at running back (the Mattisons, D’Andre Swifts, Cam Akers’ of the world), or you could grab Joe Mixon and Lawrence. If that is a close decision for you, then we’re speaking different languages entering the 2023 season.