Jacksonville Jaguars QB Trevor Lawrence’s dynasty value peaked before he even took an NFL snap. While he has flashed considerable upside, Lawrence hasn’t been able to maintain it consistently. How should fantasy football managers handle Lawrence in dynasty leagues heading into the offseason?
Trevor Lawrence’s Dynasty Outlook
After three seasons, Lawrence has become one of the most difficult quarterbacks to evaluate in dynasty. On a yearly basis, fantasy managers can take shots on him, and if he doesn’t pan out, they can stream, if necessary. In dynasty, if he’s your guy, you’re kind of stuck with him. For the majority of Lawrence’s three years in the NFL, that hasn’t been a good thing.
Lawrence had one of the worst rookie seasons by a first-round quarterback in NFL history. He completed under 60% of his passes and averaged 12.7 fantasy points per game. But, to be fair, he deserved a mulligan because of the incredibly unique circumstances of playing most of his rookie year for the worst head coach in NFL history.
As a sophomore, Lawrence showed considerable improvement…but it took a little while. On the season, he averaged 17.9 fantasy points per game. That’s good, not great. But specifically from Weeks 10-16, Lawrence showcased his upside. Over that span, he averaged 23.6 fantasy points per game. Those are elite QB1 numbers.
Lawrence’s close to the 2022 season wasn’t enough to establish himself as an elite fantasy QB, but it was enough to establish the potential. In 2023, he became a very popular “if you don’t get one of the big three” quarterbacks. Unfortunately, Lawrence took a step back in his third season.
Lawrence averaged 17.3 fantasy points per game, finishing as the overall QB13. The problem is he wasn’t even a consistently good starting fantasy option, let alone a great one.
He was worse than your average streaming option and borderline unstartable for the first 10 weeks of the season. Over that span, Lawrence never scored more than 18.7 fantasy points, something nearly every other starting quarterback did at least once.
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From Weeks 11-13, Lawrence once again looked completely unstoppable. He posted games of 32.2, 25.6, 25.1, and 20.4 fantasy points. Then, in Weeks 15, 16, and 18 (he missed Week 17), it was back to our regularly scheduled programming of sub-20-point outings.
To put things in perspective, over his last 33 games (two seasons) — meaning we’re completely throwing out his rookie year — Lawrence has recorded 20 fantasy points a whopping six times.
Lawrence’s Dynasty Ranking
Where does Lawrence land in the dynasty QB landscape going into the 2024 offseason? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Lawrence lands in comparison to other top names at the position.
Jason Katz’s Top 40 QB Rankings
1) Patrick Mahomes | KC
2) Josh Allen | BUF
3) Jalen Hurts | PHI
4) Lamar Jackson | BAL
5) Joe Burrow | CIN
6) C.J. Stroud | HOU
7) Justin Herbert | LAC
8) Dak Prescott | DAL
9) Anthony Richardson | IND
10) Kyler Murray | ARI
11) Brock Purdy | SF
12) Tua Tagovailoa | MIA
13) Trevor Lawrence | JAX
14) Justin Fields | CHI
15) Jordan Love | GB
16) Jared Goff | DET
17) Bryce Young | CAR
18) Kirk Cousins | MIN
19) Matthew Stafford | LAR
20) Deshaun Watson | CLE
21) Will Levis | TEN
22) Geno Smith | SEA
23) Baker Mayfield | TB
24) Aaron Rodgers | NYJ
25) Derek Carr | NO
26) Daniel Jones | NYG
27) Russell Wilson | DEN
28) Jake Browning | CIN
29) Gardner Minshew II | IND
30) Joe Flacco | CLE
31) Kenny Pickett | PIT
32) Sam Howell | WAS
33) Aidan O’Connell | LV
34) Jimmy Garoppolo | LV
35) Ryan Tannehill | TEN
36) Trey Lance | DAL
37) Mason Rudolph | PIT
38) Jacoby Brissett | WAS
39) Zach Wilson | NYJ
40) Hendon Hooker | DET
Should You Trade Lawrence in Dynasty?
Are you considering trading Lawrence? Our free PFN Trade Analyzer allows you to find the best trade offer to make in seconds!
Lawrence will be 25 years old in 2024. He still has plenty of time to become the quarterback he was drafted to be. However, my position on him hasn’t changed. He’s an above-average NFL quarterback.
Under the right circumstances, the Jaguars can win with him. But C.J. Stroud’s performance as a rookie serves as a shining example of what Lawrence isn’t.
For fantasy managers, it’s difficult to find a reliable quarterback you can trust every week. When you have that guy, you want to hang onto him unless you can improve. I do not believe Lawrence is that guy, nor will he ever be.
If you disagree, by all means, hang onto him. But if not, this might be the last time you can trade Lawrence at any sort of real value.
Between last year being Calvin Ridley’s first year back, the Zay Jones injury, and the Christian Kirk injury, there are definitely excuses that can be made for Lawrence. And, in his defense, Ridley was definitely more of a negative than a positive. It’s far too soon to say Lawrence will never ascend.
With that said, this is a game based on predicting the future. What is going to happen? Lawrence may very well have a season where he cracks 20 fantasy points per game. But will he ever be the type of quarterback who consistently averages 20 points per game or more? I do not see that happening.
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As a result, I would get out of Lawrence now as long as you can get a quarterback with a higher ceiling in return.
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