Trevor Lawrence was a once-in-a-generation quarterback prospect. He was the best since Andrew Luck, and a top-five QB prospect all-time for Mel Kiper. Lawrence was labeled as the chosen one when he won the national championship with Clemson as a freshman. You’d have been hard-pressed to find someone who didn’t believe he would have been the first pick in the NFL draft after each of his college seasons. And that was all coming to Clemson as one of the three highest-graded high school recruits, alongside Vince Young and Justin Fields.
Lawrence was “it.” He went to college built like an NFL quarterback. His lanky frame offered an alarmingly quick release somehow. And while Fields’ rushing ability at the NFL level has dwarfed Lawrence, they were comparable in school.
After a horrible rookie season being compromised by one of the worst coaching hires of all time, Lawrence stormed back with a vengeance in the second half of the 2022 NFL season. A win against Patrick Mahomes and Andy Reid on Saturday would solidify the legend of Trevor Lawrence and carry him into the stratosphere of Joe Burrow and Josh Allen among the AFC’s best.
Trevor Lawrence’s Ascension From a Horrific Rookie Season
This isn’t your 2017 Jacksonville Jaguars led by the also-legendary Blake Bortles. Although that team was one horrible call away from being the AFC’s Super Bowl representative, the long-term outlook of that squad looked nothing like it does for the current Jaguars.
Doug Pederson arrived and brought with him outstanding locker-room culture and a damn good scheme. Pederson’s one of the better play-callers in the NFL. He helped make Carson Wentz a very, very rich man while doing his best to hide his flaws from the world.
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Look at the difference he’s already made in Lawrence’s young career. A season ago, Lawrence posted a 39.1 QBR compared to a 54.7 this season. Last season, only Zach Wilson and Sam Darnold had a lower completion percentage over expectation.
Lawrence ranked eighth in the league this season in CPOE. After the Jaguars’ bye week, only Mahomes and Dak Prescott posted higher success rates.
Mahomes is the standard. He’s the best player in the league and has the best play-caller in the league by his side. But Reid is more than that, at least this week.
Doug Pederson’s Part in This
The other big storyline when Jacksonville visits the Chiefs is Pederson’s relationship with Reid. From a career perspective, Pederson and Reid are inseparable.
There may be no more closer career relationship than the two Super Bowl-winning head coaches. Their relationship dates back a quarter century when Pederson was backing up Brett Favre in Green Bay. Reid was the Packers’ quarterbacks coach and assistant head coach. He’s one of the few coaches to ever go from positional to head coach and succeed.
They were together in Green Bay from 1995-1998. When Reid got the job as head coach of the Philadelphia Eagles, Pederson followed. After being separated until 2009, Reid hired Pederson as an offensive quality control coach for two seasons before he was elevated to QBs coach for 2011 and 2012.
When the Eagles parted ways with Reid, Pederson followed him to Kansas City as his offensive coordinator. Pederson did such a bang-up job that Philadelphia hired him as their head coach in 2016, and he won the Super Bowl the following season.
Pederson got a gift in the form of Lawrence. In a league where job security is practically non-existent, Lawrence’s physical ability, paired with Pederson’s ability to get the best out of his passers, could lead to a long-lived marriage between the two.
Fulfilling the Prophecy
It’s not fair, but to be the best as a quarterback in the NFL, you have to beat the best. Tom Brady is not the most physically-gifted QB of all time, but he’s won so much for so long that nobody can question his standing as the greatest of all time.
Meanwhile, Dan Marino never won a Super Bowl, and we had real-life human beings that would argue Eli was the better Manning until Peyton won his second ring. It’s not fair, because football is the ultimate team sport, but winning big games is how a QB builds a legend.
Outdueling the best player in the league, and arguably the most physically gifted passer we’ve ever seen, would go a long way for Lawrence. It would keep Mahomes from going to five consecutive AFC Championship games to begin his career as a starter. And Lawrence doesn’t have a dominant defense to hang his hat on.
Before their matchup, I pondered whether one should choose to start a team with Lawrence or Herbert. If Lawrence beats Mahomes, that argument has been officially settled until further notice, whether he’s actually the more talented player or not.
Captain Price said in Call of Duty Modern Warfare 2 (2009), “History is written by the victor. History is filled with liars. If he lives and we die, his truth becomes written – and ours is lost.” Winning is remembered. It’s a quarterback’s trump card, even if defense and special teams carried that QB to victory.
The thing is, that won’t be the case unless something unforeseen happens on Saturday. The Chiefs’ offense was the best in the NFL when looking at per-play efficiency, and the Jags finished inside the top 10 as well.
Each team’s defense falls outside of the top 10, although both came to life in the second half of the season. If Lawrence goes toe-to-toe with the best the league has to offer, it will be impossible to deny that he’s on an outrageous trajectory.
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The AFC is a gauntlet. Mahomes, Allen, Burrow, Herbert, Lamar Jackson, and the potential of pre… everything Deshaun Watson. The Texans have the second pick in the draft, and many teams still have young, highly-drafted QBs on rookie deals.
It would have been easy to roll over and die against the Chargers after four first-half interceptions. Lawrence showed intestinal fortitude and arrogance in his ability as a player. He never slowed down.
Lawrence has been the best his whole life. He’s not afraid of the big, bad wolf. He doesn’t care that the Chiefs are a perennial powerhouse. This is the young man who slayed the Alabama monster (44-16) like he was Geralt of Rivia. He, not Dabo Swinney, is the one who made Clemson a powerhouse. Beating the Chiefs adds a page to the flowing blonde-haired legend.