Traditionally we view the third season of a quarterback’s NFL career as the time they take that next step. Trevor Lawrence is now five games into his third season, and questions about his development have started to stir among fans and a handful of analysts.
Sunday saw a mixed performance from Lawrence as his Jacksonville Jaguars team emerged victorious in London. He started hot, completing six of his first eight passes for 95 yards and a touchdown.
Unfortunately, the wheels then started to come off. Lawrence would not throw for another touchdown all game and had two costly fumbles when the Jaguars were in field goal range. Nevertheless, Lawrence all but finished the game with an impressive pass down the right sideline to Calvin Ridley before Travis Etienne Jr. sealed the deal with a touchdown.
Still, his performance against the Buffalo Bills was a microcosm of his season to this point.
AJ Epenesa with a big-time strip sack for the #Bills to keep it a 4-point game at the half in London❗️pic.twitter.com/nOTtKa6gB2
— Pro Football Network (@PFN365) October 8, 2023
With the Jaguars’ offensive struggles seemingly continuing this season, let’s take a look at how Lawrence’s 2023 season has gone so far and whether it’s time to start questioning the play of the third-year QB.
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Trevor Lawrence’s Third Season Numbers Have Not Shown Growth
Lawrence’s 2023 numbers heading into their Week 5 game against the Bills were slightly below that of his 2022 season-long numbers. While we accept that both metrics have their flaws, Lawrence’s traditional QB rating (89.0) and ESPN-derived QBR (48.9) are below his 2022 numbers.
In terms of the raw numbers, Lawrence’s completion percentage is up from 66.3 to 67.1, but that is his only passing number that stands out as being an increase. His touchdown percentage has dropped from 4.3% to 2.8%, his yards per game are down (241.9 vs. 235.8), and his net yards per attempt are down more than 5% on last year (6.43 to 6.02).
The advanced numbers are also either the same or lower, with his intended air yards dipping from 7.4 to 6.8 as perhaps the most eye-catching. Despite the addition of Calvin Ridley to Christian Kirk and Zay Jones, Lawrence is actually less aggressive when throwing the ball than he was in 2022. That has resulted in nearly all of his Pro Football Reference-derived “Adjusted Passing” numbers being down.
MORE: Jacksonville Jaguars Depth Chart
Now, had 2022 between this magical year for Lawrence, you could perhaps accept a slight step back. However, 2022 was seen as a rebuilding year for the young QB after the debacle of the Urban Meyer tenure. Lawrence would finish with 25 touchdowns, 4,113 passing yards, and a 66.3% completion rate as the Jaguars finished 9-8 to creep into the playoffs.
Josh Allen Is a Shining Example of a Third-Year QB ‘Breakout’
In many ways, a game against the Bills is fitting at this stage of Lawrence’s third season. Buffalo QB Josh Allen is one of the poster boys for that third-year step-up in level or “breakout.” Allen’s number improved dramatically in his third season in the NFL as he went from a player whose future was uncertain to the undisputed face of the franchise.
It is worth stating that Allen’s base value entering his third season was significantly lower than Lawrence’s. Allen had completed just 58.8% of his passes for 3,089 yards and 20 touchdowns in his second season. However, his third-year numbers of a 69.2% passing completion rate, 4,544 passing yards, and 37 passing touchdowns are above the pace Lawrence is on right now.
It’s also worth noting that Allen’s intended air yards actually dropped in his third season, but it resulted in a more consistent output overall. Additionally, Allen’s intended air yards in his first two seasons were over nine yards per attempt, compared to around 7.5 for Lawrence. Even with his decrease, Allen was still averaging over eight intended air yards per pass attempt.
Is it Too Early To Judge Lawrence?
On one hand, of course, it’s too early to judge Lawrence just five games into his NFL career. He has played just 38 games in the NFL, and 17 of them were under the chaos of the Meyer tenure and the resulting uncertainty after he was fired.
From that perspective, we may have to consider 2022 as Lawrence’s “true” rookie season and 2023 as his true second season.
If that’s the case, then we would perhaps expect to see Lawrence take the next step in 2024 in his third season under the Doug Pederson regime. The numbers clearly show a big step from 2021 to 2022, and if that next step comes in 2023, then the Jaguars will have themselves a superstar.
The problem with doing that is that the NFL timeline is fickle. Sure, as a first-round pick, the Jaguars have the fifth-year option they can exercise on Lawrence. However, we’ve seen previously that QBs who feel they have earned a new deal can get twitchy when that window for an extension opens after Year 3.
Will Lawrence be patient if this season ends up matching 2022, or will he feel he has earned a new deal? It isn’t his fault that the Meyer experiment was such a disaster, and he’s unlikely to be happy accepting that as a reason for delayed contract talks.
Of course, if Lawrence takes what is a solid but unspectacular start to 2023 and takes it up a level, this conversation could all be moot.
The Jaguars entered Week 4 at 2-2, with one of those losses coming against the Kansas City Chiefs. Jacksonville’s season is far from over, and Lawrence has the talent himself and around him to produce some big numbers between now and January.