Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce was the overall TE1 last season, marking the eighth consecutive year he finished inside the top two. Yet, it was a down year by his standards. Does Kelce’s fantasy football projection for the 2024 season point to a rebound?
Travis Kelce’s 2024 Fantasy Outlook
- Fantasy points per game: 18.2
- Receptions: 113
- Receiving Yards: 1,321
- Receiving TDs: 9.9
These are PFN’s consensus projections, correct as of August 14. The most up-to-date projections can be found in our Who Should I Draft Tool.
Should You Draft Kelce This Year?
Historically, when you draft Kelce, it’s not enough to get the overall TE1. In fact, you don’t necessarily even need him to be the overall TE1. What you do need is for him to give you a sizable advantage over every other tight end (except for maybe one).
In 2022, Kelce did just that. His 18.6 fantasy points per game provided the single largest gap between the TE1 and TE2 in the history of fantasy football. Naturally, that led to Kelce having the highest ADP of his career in 2023. As has been the case every time a tight end has gone in the first round, he wasn’t worth it.
Looking purely at TE finishes, Kelce did what was expected of him. He finished as the overall TE1. The problem, however, is that 14.6 fantasy ppg wasn’t enough.
When you spend a first- or early second-round pick on a tight end, he can’t just be the TE1 or TE2, he has to be a WR1. That means we need at least 16 fantasy points per game.
Several factors contributed to Kelce’s failure to live up to expectations. For starters, he’s getting older. At 34 years old, the Chiefs understand his value to the team, especially in the playoffs. Head coach Andy Reid has openly stated that Kelce is not going to be a 90% snap-share player anymore. It would be a surprise if Kelce even matched the 78.7% snap share he saw last season.
Another reason Kelce wasn’t as good as expected is because of the Chiefs’ offense. This team regularly scores 50+ offensive touchdowns, but last season, they only scored 37 — by far the lowest of the Patrick Mahomes era.
Even though Kelce isn’t on the field as much as he used to be, his expected touchdown total was still a hair above six. He scored four, however. Simply scoring two more times would have gotten him to 15.4 ppg, much closer to that WR1 level of production we need to justify his cost in fantasy drafts.
This year, I’m projecting an even further decline in Kelce’s usage. The man is 35 years old. They’re not going to force-feed him targets, nor are they going to leave him in games that aren’t competitive.
I have Kelce projected for just a 21.5% target share. That gives him 99 receptions for 1,135 yards and 6.7 touchdowns. As a result, he averages out to about 14.85 fantasy ppg.
On the surface, it may sound like Kelce is a fade. But, as is the case in 99% of situations in fantasy drafts, it all comes down to cost.
Kelce would absolutely be an easy fade at his 2023 ADP, but his 2024 circumstances have changed. Kelce is being drafted as the TE2 (behind Sam LaPorta) and is going in the third round (sometimes fourth) of fantasy drafts.
LaPorta did project out as the overall TE1 for me, but only barely. The gap between Kelce and the TE3 is far greater than the gap between LaPorta and Kelce, and that’s based on the expectation that the Chiefs’ veteran’s role will be reduced. It’s baked into my projection and into his ADP.
What if the Chiefs end up in more competitive games than normal? What if they need Kelce more than they thought they would? What if Kelce happens to score 10 touchdowns?
The way I see it, there are more paths to Kelce exceeding ADP expectations than failing. Yes, he could fall off a cliff, which happens to 35-year-old players. But we haven’t seen signs of that level of decline.
Typically, in fantasy drafts, I want to walk away with an elite or semi-elite quarterback or tight end (but never both). Since tight ends provide a greater advantage than quarterbacks, Kelce is definitely someone to target in 2024 fantasy drafts.