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    Travis Kelce Fantasy Outlook: Is This the Year Regression Hits?

    Kansas City Chiefs TE Travis Kelce has been the most decisive edge in fantasy football, but is this the year where his age finally catches up with him?

    Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce is coming off an absurd seventh consecutive top-two finish at the position. He’s the surest thing in all of fantasy football. As Kelce gets up there in age, the risk of a decline continues to increase. Is this the year he falls off? What is Kelce’s fantasy outlook for the 2023 season?

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    Travis Kelce’s Fantasy Outlook

    I won’t spend too much time salivating over Kelce’s accolades. He’s finished no lower than the overall TE2 every year since 2017 and has been the TE1 for four of the past five seasons.

    The thing with Kelce’s TE1 finishes is they’re not all created equal. It’s not enough for him to be the TE1, Kelce has to average enough fantasy points per game to be worthy of his lofty draft price. If he doesn’t, then the gap between him and the rest of the tight ends has to be massive.

    Last season, Kelce was the single-most decisive advantage in fantasy football because he did both. Kelce’s 18.6 PPR points per game was the second-highest average of his career. It was also good enough that it would’ve made him the WR7, thus well worthy of his high draft cost even if he wasn’t eligible at tight end.

    On top of the gaudy numbers, Kelce averaged a whopping 5.2 ppg more than the TE2, George Kittle. The average back-end TE1/streamer would get you around 10 ppg. Kelce was 8.6 ppg ahead of that. It was the largest gap between the TE1 and TE2 in the history of fantasy football, and it wasn’t close.

    Should Fantasy Managers Draft Kelce at His ADP?

    Every time a tight end has a transcendent year, his ADP vaults into the first round. That’s exactly what’s happened to Kelce with an overall ADP of 5 (you don’t need me to tell you his positional ADP).

    But before you go spending a mid-first-rounder on Kelce, I need to remind you of a couple of things. Historically, first-round tight ends haven’t been worth it. Of course, the sample size isn’t huge.

    In 2014, Jimmy Graham finished as the TE2, 3.4 ppg behind Rob Gronkowski and just 0.5 ppg ahead of Antonio Gates. In 2015, Gronk finished as the TE2, 0.4 ppg behind Jordan Reed and just 0.7 ppg ahead of Delanie Walker. Kelce himself was a first-rounder in 2021. Mark Andrews, who is now going nearly two full rounds after Kelce this season, outscored him that year by 1.3 ppg.

    For Kelce to be worthy of his ADP, he has to not only be the TE1 but also be so by a fairly decent margin. Every time we anoint tight ends as first-rounders, they prove to not be worth the cost.

    Then, there’s the added matter of Kelce being 34 years old. Now, to be fair, Kelce has shown no signs of slowing down. The Chiefs limited him to just an 81% snap share last season, but that’s actually a benefit because it helps keep him fresh. In order to be elite, he clearly doesn’t need a 90% snap share.

    Kelce saw a 24.9% target share (third in the NFL) and was targeted on 27.7% of his routes run (fourth). Additionally, his 2.44 yards per route run was second in the league.

    By every measure, Kelce remains elite.

    Additionally, Kansas City is even weaker at wide receiver than they were last season. Gone are JuJu Smith-Schuster and Mecole Hardman. Currently, the Chiefs are rolling with Kadarius Toney and Marquez Valdes-Scantling as their top two receivers while hoping Skyy Moore takes a step forward.

    There’s no doubt Kelce will once again lead this team in receiving, and I have zero concerns that this is the year he falls off. My issue with taking Kelce in the first round is more philosophical. I just never like the way my teams look when I spend a first-round pick on a tight end. I felt this way in 2021, and I still do.

    With that said, my projections have Kelce at 117 receptions for 1,424 yards and 11.9 touchdowns. That comes out to 19.4 ppg and another TE1 finish. Even if someone like Andrews or Kittle gets close to Kelce this season (unlikely), Kelce would still be worthy of his lofty ADP with those numbers.

    Ultimately, fantasy managers should have no qualms about taking Kelce in Round 1. If it’s a problem for you mentally, just look at Kelce as your WR1 and treat the last wide receiver in your lineup as your tight end.

    At worst, Kelce will provide a slightly negative return on investment. I’m quite confident that taking him in the first round won’t be the reason you lose your league, but he can certainly help win it.

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