The Kansas City Chiefs will face the Buffalo Bills in the AFC Conference Championship Game. Here’s the latest fantasy football news and advice to help you with your lineups this week and moving forward, especially regarding TE Travis Kelce.
Is Travis Kelce Playing vs. the Bills?
Kelce was not listed on the injury report this week. Barring any last-minute setbacks, he will play vs. Buffalo.
We’ll continue to monitor the Chiefs’ injury report. You can also visit and bookmark our NFL Injury Tracker and Fantasy News Tracker for the latest updates.
Should You Start or Sit Travis Kelce in the AFC Conference Championship Game?
Chess to checkers.
We knew it all season, and it’s again proven true. While the Lions were busy going all out for a meaningless Week 17 win, and the Packers dealt with injuries resulting in a Week 18 game that, as it turned out, had no impact on seeding, the reigning champions managed their Hall of Fame tight end since November. And guess what?
The man showed out in the Divisional Round.
Travis Kelce finished with 66.1% of the Chiefs’ receiving yards in the 23-14 win over the Texans — the only instance in which a TE accounted for a higher percentage of his team’s receiving yards in a playoff game since 2000 was … yep, Mr. Kelce (2019 Divisional Round against the same Houston team).
Kelce scored twice on five catches against the Bills last postseason, and I’d suggest looking at that game more than the regular-season meeting (Week 11 at Buffalo: two receptions for eight yards) between these two), as that is when Andy Reid elects to unleash the beast.
Kelce’s per-game production since 2022:
- Regular season: 6.3 catches, 85 targets, 65.5 yards, and 15.2 PPR points
- Playoffs: 8.3 catches, 9.5 targets, 91.1 yards, and 23.4 PPR points
Kelce’s 49-yard catch in the Divisional Round was his longest in 454 days. It would appear that we have cheat code Kelce back on our hands for the rest of this season.
Paying up for him can be done if you like the value at receiver (Kelce is 33.3% more expensive than any other tight end on DraftKings this week), though I’d recommend waiting on some ownership projections.
If Kelce comes in low, go for it. If not, I’ll be passing (and this is my current expectation). It’s not that I’m worried about him paying off his price tag, it’s more of a roster construction thing. His price point is so much above the field that Kelce owners are all going to land in the same range of players elsewhere, thus making it difficult to differentiate unless you go out of your way to do so with a double-TE build or an uncorrelated play (Isiah Pacheco and Kelce together, for example).
Are you looking for start/sit advice for other players in your lineup? Read our Conference Championship Fantasy Start-Sit Advice Cheat Sheet for every fantasy-relevant player in every game.
Travis Kelce’s Fantasy Points Projection in the AFC Conference Championship Game
As of Sunday morning, Kelce is projected to score 18.9 fantasy points in PPR formats. This includes 7.5 receptions for 81.1 yards and 0.5 touchdowns.
Check out the free PFN Fantasy Start-Sit Optimizer for the latest projections and advice for your lineups this week.
PFN Insight on the Bills' Defense
After finishing as a top-seven defense in each of the last three seasons, the Bills finished 18th during the regular season. That's not the biggest surprise given that this was largely billed as a rebuilding season for this unit.
Buffalo was a boom-or-bust defense in the Divisional Round vs. Baltimore, and there were just enough highs to escape with the win. In addition to the three takeaways, the Bills also generated their second-highest non-blitz pressure rate (42.9%) this season. The only higher rate was in the Wild Card win over the Broncos (50%).
This wasn't a particularly efficient defensive performance, as reflected in the final Defense+ grade of 69.9 (D+). Despite some run stuffs, the Bills had their worst rushing defense success rate all season (44%) and were fortunate the game script didn't allow the Ravens to lean more heavily on their run game.
Still, the Bills' offense is operating at such a high level that the bar to clear for the defense is lower than it would be on nearly any other team. Buffalo met that threshold with a few big plays against the Ravens. Those could be tougher to generate against a Chiefs offense that has gone eight straight games without a turnover, but it may be all the Bills need to finally conquer Kansas City.
For more insight on all other team defenses, head to our PFN Defense+ Metric Analysis.
Travis Kelce’s Fantasy Ranking
Our Weekly Consensus PPR Rankings are below — both positional and overall. They were last updated at 11:45 PM ET on Saturday, January 25.
Conference Championship TE PPR Rankings
1) Travis Kelce | KC (vs. BUF)
2) Dallas Goedert | PHI (vs. WAS)
3) Dalton Kincaid | BUF (at KC)
4) Zach Ertz | WAS (at PHI)
5) Noah Gray | KC (vs. BUF)
6) Dawson Knox | BUF (at KC)
7) John Bates | WAS (at PHI)
8) Grant Calcaterra | PHI (vs. WAS)
9) Ben Sinnott | WAS (at PHI)
10) Quintin Morris | BUF (at KC)
11) Peyton Hendershot | KC (vs. BUF)
12) E.J. Jenkins | PHI (vs. WAS)
13) Anthony Firkser | NYJ ()
Bills at Chiefs Trends and Insights
Buffalo Bills
Team: The Bills lost four road games during the regular season — only four Super Bowl champions in the 2000s have done that (2018 Patriots, 2012 Ravens, 2010 Packers, and 2006 Colts).
QB: Five times has a QB had four games in a season (playoffs included) with multiple rush touchdowns and 20 pass attempts.
- 2021 Jalen Hurts
- 2022 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Jalen Hurts
- 2023 Josh Allen
- 2024 Josh Allen
No player has had five such games in a season.
Offense: The Bills have scored on at least 55% of their possessions six times this season, four of which have come against playoff teams.
Defense: Buffalo allowed Baltimore to pick up 70% of their third downs. That’s the fourth-highest rate the Bills have allowed in the 2000s and is their highest in a winning effort.
Fantasy: Allen has completed over 72% of his passes in both playoff wins – he had three such games during the regular season.
Betting: Overs are 5-2 in Buffalo’s past seven games, cashing last week by half a point with Baltimore's final touchdown.
Kansas City Chiefs
Team: Christmas Day 2023 was the date of Kansas City’s last home loss – each of their past six Arrowhead games have been decided by a single possession.
QB: Patrick Mahomes has thrown a total of three touchdown passes in his last two Championship games (3.7% of his attempts) after throwing three in each of his first four appearances (8.4%).
Offense: Saturday was the 10th time this season in which the Chiefs scored on at least half of their possessions (five-of-nine against Houston).
Defense: Opponents have picked up at least half of their third downs in four straight games against the Chiefs (Texans: 10-of-17).
Fantasy: In the last two games in which their starters have been extended, the Chiefs have managed to turn 42 carries into just 119 yards (2.83 yards per carry).
Betting: By taking an intentional safety at the end of their win over the Texans, the Chiefs snapped their six-game playoff cover streak.
