Travis Kelce’s Dynasty Value | Fantasy Outlook, Ranking, and More

Kansas City Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce underwhelmed last season but seemed to revive himself in the NFL playoffs.

Significantly older than his fellow TE1s, is Kelce still a top fantasy football asset? Where does his dynasty value stand heading into the 2024 offseason?

Travis Kelce’s Dynasty Outlook

Early in the 2024 season, Kelce will turn 35 years old. At this point in his career, he’s done it all. Rumors were swirling that he was going to retire after the Super Bowl. Obviously, that didn’t happen.

But at his age, whispers of retirement are going to pop up after every season. Eventually, they will come true.

Kelce is arguably the greatest tight end in the history of the sport. He’s won multiple Super Bowls. He’s dating the biggest pop star on the planet. It’s season-by-season for him now, with each year possibly being his last.

For fantasy managers, it was looking pretty straightforward for most of 2023. Kelce was declining. He caught 93 of 121 targets for 984 yards and five touchdowns and averaged 14.6 fantasy points per game.

Every single one of those numbers was a low-water figure dating back to the 2016 season. And it was the first time since 2015 in which Kelce failed to reach 1,000 receiving yards.

Kelce still finished as the overall TE1, but not every TE1 finish is created equal. In 2022, Kelce was also the overall TE1. Yet, he averaged 4.0 fantasy points per game more than in 2023.

There’s a stark difference between posting elite WR1 numbers and mid-WR2 numbers. When you get elite WR1 numbers from the tight end position, Kelce is one of, if not the most, valuable asset in fantasy. When you get mid-WR2 numbers, he’s just another really good tight end.

Kelce’s 10.6 yards per reception was a steep decline from previous seasons, precipitated by his 6.7 aDOT (average depth of target). For context, that number has gone down every year since 2019. Back then, it was a whopping 9.4.

There’s no denying Kelce isn’t the same explosive downfield threat he was earlier in his career. Last season, he had just two 100-yard-receiving games and six with less than 50 yards. Kelce was still very effective, but it sure looked like he had lost a step. Then, the playoffs happened.

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Throughout the postseason, Kelce has looked like vintage Kelce. In the AFC Championship Game, he caught all 11 targets for 116 yards and a touchdown.

That deep into a season with that many games under his belt, Kelce should be slowing down. Instead, he’s ramping up. There’s no doubt this run, while not counting for fantasy football, is going to impact his future value.

Kelce’s Dynasty Ranking

Where does Kelce sit in the dynasty TE landscape? Here are Katz’s latest rankings, featuring where Kelce lands in comparison to other top names at the position.

1) Sam LaPorta | DET
2) Trey McBride | ARI
3) Brock Bowers | FA
4) Mark Andrews | BAL
5) Kyle Pitts | ATL
6) T.J. Hockenson | MIN
7) Dalton Kincaid | BUF
8) Travis Kelce | KC
9) George Kittle | SF
10) David Njoku | CLE
11) Evan Engram | JAX
12) Jake Ferguson | DAL

Should You Trade Kelce in Dynasty?

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Before 2023, Kelce had averaged at least 15.6 fantasy points per game for six straight seasons (two of the past three seasons were 18.6 and 20.9 averages).

Those are elite WR1 numbers from a tight end. I don’t care how old the tight end is, you don’t trade that away. But 14-15 points per game? That’s a different story.

Even if Kelce is at 15 points per game and still the overall TE1, other tight ends can get to 14+ points on average.

The value in Kelce has always been how much better he’s been than every other tight end. By way of example, in 2022, his 18.6 points per game was 5.2 points better on average than the overall TE2.

That’s a massive edge the Kelce manager has on every other team. If that massive edge is gone for good, with an uncertain amount of time left, now might be when it’s best to trade Kelce.

It’s one thing if Kelce is not necessarily a difference-maker at tight end but stands to be at the top of the position for another 6-8 years. With quite possibly only one such year remaining, the entire thesis changes.

Could Kelce play another 3-4 years? Sure, it’s possible. Tony Gonzalez played until 37, and Antonio Gates played until 38. Even if Kelce remains at around 14 points per game, if he plays another few years, whatever you get back for him in a deal probably won’t be worth it.

This is the challenge of managing a dynasty team and, thus, the tough decisions managers must make with older players.

Given Kelce’s age, I would look to take advantage of this playoff renaissance he’s experienced. There are a bunch of young, talented tight ends out there who are likely to be impactful fantasy assets for the next decade.

Plus, head coach Andy Reid openly stated the team is prioritizing keeping Kelce as fresh as possible for the playoffs. They know that as long as they have Patrick Mahomes they will be a playoff team.

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That gives the Chiefs the luxury of not having to push Kelce too hard during the regular season. Great for the Chiefs. Not great for fantasy managers who want their TE1 on the field as much as possible.

If you can still get a decent haul for Kelce, it’s worth exploring. But if you’re a contending team, I would only move him if the deal is too good to refuse.