Travis Etienne Jr. has struggled mightily throughout the first half of the 2024 NFL season. After missing two straight games with a strained hamstring, could he return for the Jacksonville Jaguars’ Week 9 matchup against the Philadelphia Eagles?
Let’s break down the latest on Etienne’s hamstring injury and what it means for fantasy football managers going forward.
What Is Travis Etienne Jr.’s Injury?
During the Jaguars’ Week 6 game against the Chicago Bears, Etienne exited the game in the second quarter with a hamstring injury.
At that point, Etienne had just three carries for -1 yards. Tank Bigsby took over as the team’s RB1 after Etienne left the game, and he has made the most of his opportunities.
Jaguars head coach Doug Pederson initially described Etienne as “week to week.”
Hamstring injuries have a tendency to linger and, as we’ve seen with guys like Nico Collins and Mike Evans, trying to play through them can lead to a worse injury.
Is Etienne Playing in Week 9?
It remains to be seen if Etienne will return for the Jaguars’ Week 9 game against the Philadelphia Eagles.
Last week, he was listed as questionable after being a limited participant in practice all week. The veteran running back was a game-time decision ahead of the Week 8 matchup against the Green Bay Packers, but the Jaguars ultimately ruled him out.
The fact that Etienne was a game-time decision is promising in terms of his availability going forward.
Monitor the practice reports throughout the week to see if Etienne can get in a full practice, and then check the Jaguars’ injury report on Friday to see if he has an injury designation for Week 9.
But even if Etienne is healthy, will Jacksonville really start him over Bigsby? And can fantasy managers insert Etienne into their lineup with confidence?
How Might Etienne’s Absence Impact the Jaguars if Ruled Out?
This is horrible to say, but the Jaguars might actually be better off if Etienne is sidelined. His absence over the last two games allowed Bigsby to shine, turning 44 carries into 196 yards and two touchdowns.
It’s clear Bigsby is the best back on this team. On the season, he now has 85 carries for 493 yards (5.8 yards per attempt) and four touchdowns.
Perhaps most impressive about Bigsby’s recent success is that he’s not getting much help: in three of his past four games, he’s averaged less than two feet per carry before contact.
Meanwhile, Etienne has 56 carries for 230 yards (4.1 yards per attempt) and two touchdowns on the season, plus just 91 receiving yards and zero scores through the air. Etienne’s last 11 carries have netted just 19 yards.
After rushing for 1,000 yards in each of the last two seasons and totaling 12 touchdowns last year, Etienne has been incredibly inefficient so far this season. Last season, he produced 8.5% over expectation. This year, he’s producing 17.2% under expectation. Etienne’s yards per carry before contact is up 84.6% from last season, but his ypc after contact is down 15.3%.
It’s possible that Etienne’s early-season struggles were related to injuries and that he’ll look significantly better once he’s back. But if he’s anything less than 100%, Jacksonville should let him recover and continue to lean on Bigsby.
Bigsby has been more productive and significantly more explosive than Etienne this year, so it will be interesting to see how the coaching staff splits up the touches once the latter returns.
Pederson recently said that he doesn’t believe players should lose their jobs due to injuries and that Etienne is still the RB1. We’ll see how long that lasts.
#Jaguars HC Doug Pederson on whether Tank Bigsby will replace Travis Etienne as RB1:
“I don’t think so. I’m a believer where injury doesn’t replace your position. I think you have to have a fair competition… It’s still [Etienne’s] job. But Tank has done some really good things,… pic.twitter.com/UczAjywZg4
— The Coachspeak Index (@CoachspeakIndex) October 20, 2024
The Coachspeak Index added in a follow-up tweet that Pederson has a 35% reliability rating. This man is coaching for his job, so it’s hard to imagine he will continue to put the inefficient, plodding Etienne out there over the far superior Bigsby.
The biggest issue for Bigsby’s fantasy value is he provides little in the passing game. That’s especially risky since he plays on one of the worst teams in the NFL. If the Jaguars face a negative game script — which is likely in most of their remaining games — Etienne or D’Ernest Johnson may be on the field instead.
However, it’s worth noting that he is earning some additional opportunities in the passing attack as of late. In Week 8, Bigsby ran as many routes as Johnson, and his 46% route participation was a season-high, as JJ Zachariason of LateRoundQB posted.
Still, Bigsby is heavily reliant on touchdowns to produce for fantasy managers. His fantasy value in Week 9 will largely come down to whether Etienne plays.
If Etienne is active, it will be tough to trust either back, especially against an Eagles defense that allows the fourth-fewest fantasy points per game to running backs (13.7).